• Overall economic contraction of 3% expected this year; 3% growth anticipated in 2024
• RW hints at contesting Presidential Polls, tells Cabinet that campaign will begin in Jan.
• Concerns raised with RW over persons to fill upcoming vacancies at President’s Office
• Dhammika’s front-row seat and crowd support pushes news of SLPP’s prez candidate
• SLPP says Dhammika among four frontrunners; Basil guides Sagara on how to respond
• Basil proposes Dhammika for national organiser post, leaves to the US for the holidays
• SJB takes tough stand on re-joining UNP, RW; also decides action against errant SJBers
• Dullas-GL and co. split comes out in the open; rift over forming alliance and partners
• RW pledges truth, reconciliation; ITAK to meet in January to decide on leadership change

As a majority of the country’s politicians, including President Ranil Wickremesinghe, have taken time off to enjoy the holiday cheer, the people were also seen trying to make the best of what they have to give some cheer to their families amidst strangulating economic conditions that have driven prices of goods and services high this season.

The skyrocketing prices of vegetables in recent days have left consumers wondering what 2024 might hold for them. It is in such a backdrop that Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe has stated that he expects the economy to have an overall contraction of nearly 3% in 2023, which is a revision of his earlier forecast of a 1-2% contraction. He had also predicted a growth of 3% in 2024, surpassing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast of 1.8%.

In a recent media interview, the Governor had said that 2024 was an important year for Sri Lanka to emerge from the crisis and have a positive moment in terms of economic growth going forward.

Giving further hope of a recovering economy, the President’s Media Division (PMD) last week stated that the gross official reserves of the country were expected to surpass over $ 4 billion by the end of this year, with $ 780 million in notable inflows of foreign exchange to the Government.

The PMD had noted that Sri Lanka had received a second tranche of $ 337 million from the IMF, $ 200 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for various programmes, and $ 250 million from the World Bank in December.

However, Sri Lanka is still not fully out of the woods, with a finalisation of the country’s debt restructuring programme due to be completed in the first quarter of 2024, as well as having to meet the deadlines for the Government by the IMF under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme.

Be that as it may, it is evident that the Ranil Wickremesinghe Government is anticipating the country to be on a positive trajectory by the end of the first quarter of 2024, with statements by the President that the country will prepare for a key national election at the end of the second quarter of 2024.

Presidential Polls

Following weeks, if not months, of speculation on which election will be held first in 2024, President Wickremesinghe this month stated that the Presidential Election would be held first followed by the General Election.

The next round of speculation was on the possible candidates at the next Presidential Election and whether Wickremesinghe would contest.

Following initial reports that the President was unlikely to contest at the next Presidential Election, Wickremesinghe on Monday (18) told the Cabinet gathering that the campaign for the next Presidential Polls would be launched from January and that everyone should join in. This was seen by Wickremesinghe loyalists as an indication of his decision to contest at the 2024 Presidential Election.

Meanwhile, the preparation for next year’s polls has even reached the President’s Office.

The Sunday Morning last week reported that several senior officials of the President’s staff are expected to move out of their roles at the Presidential Secretariat in the new year in order to engage in the party campaign as well as the Presidential Election campaign. Wickremesinghe’s Chief of Staff Sagala Ratnayaka is also among the officials to move out of the secretariat.

It is learnt that with some of Wickremesinghe’s most senior and trusted officials leaving his office, several seniors of the United National Party (UNP) are looking at getting their loyalists posted to these positions. 

It is also learnt that several senior officials at the Presidential Secretariat have already cautioned the President of the danger posed to him (Wickremesinghe) and the Government in the event ‘deal-makers’ are appointed to fill some senior positions within his staff.

Malik’s return

It is in such a backdrop that some news reports stated that confidante of President Wickremesinghe, former Chairman of the UNP Malik Samarawickrama, has re-joined forces with Wickremesinghe to support his campaign.

Following the end of the previous ‘Good Governance’ Government, a disgruntled Samarawickrama had decided to retire from politics and spend his leisure time peacefully in Kandy. It was well known that Samarawickrama has held a strong stance on the need for systemic changes.

Despite retiring from politics, Samarawickrama had continued his friendship with Wickremesinghe, with the duo occasionally even meeting up during holidays.

However, it is learnt that, contrary to some news reports, Samarawickrama has not decided to engage in political work with Wickremesinghe or work on his campaign. 

Nevertheless, Samarawickrama has decided to support Wickremesinghe in the programme to develop Kandy, which was launched initially during the ‘Good Governance’ Government. 

Decentralised budget

Meanwhile, Wickremesinghe has said at a Special District Coordination Committee (DCC) meeting in the Badulla District that a decentralised budget will be allocated for each district based on the available number of seats, starting next year. This could be seen as yet another step in next year’s election campaign.

“Starting from the next fiscal year, districts will receive a decentralised budget based on the available number of seats. Additionally, the up-country programme, aimed at supporting isolated mountain villages, has commenced, with each Divisional Secretariat receiving Rs. 10 million. Plans are in place to incrementally increase this support,” he had said.

“Financial allocations to Provincial Councils will contribute to the overall funding available to each district. Capital expenditure at the ministry level, along with foreign aid-supported projects, will be integrated into the funding structure,” he had added.

President Wickremesinghe had highlighted that this comprehensive approach, combining resources from various channels, aimed to commence work by July 2024. 

Meanwhile, UNP Chairman Member of Parliament (MP) Vajira Abeywardena had said that President Wickremesinghe would win the next Presidential Election with 10 million votes: “I am saying this because we are confident of the place this country will be in April due to the proper economic policies of President Ranil Wickremesinghe.”

Enter Dhammika

Meanwhile, the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) is also gearing up for the Presidential Elections, with much speculation over the party’s candidate at the polls. The party’s convention held on 15 December was seen as the first step in the SLPP campaign, which had refrained from holding large-scale meetings since last year’s Aragalaya protest campaign.

The recently-concluded SLPP convention did not see any reference being made to the party’s choice of candidate at the Presidential Election. There has been much speculation during the past few months over the candidate, with several senior SLPPers stating that the candidate would have a name consisting of ‘three letters,’ while some news reports stated that the name would have ‘four letters’.

However, given the name that was made public by some media outlets, that businessman-turned-politician Dhammika Perera would be the SLPP’s presidential candidate, it seemed that the ‘four-letter’ name had made the cut. Perera was seen seated in the front row at the SLPP convention next to Party Founder Basil Rajapaksa, who has now decided to step aside from the post of national organiser.

Seeing Perera’s role at the party convention, especially the reaction of SLPP members at the event who had called out to Perera asking if he was going to contest under the SLPP, news quickly spread that the SLPP had decided on him as the party’s candidate.

However, the SLPP immediately refuted reports of Perera’s candidacy, saying that the party has not decided on a presidential candidate. The SLPP noted that a decision on the party’s presidential candidate would be a task for the Politburo, which had not met since 16 December.

Basil had also directed SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam to refute any stories about Perera being named as the party’s presidential candidate.

SLPP candidates

Kariyawasam told the media that the SLPP was considering four individuals as potential candidates for the next Presidential Election as the party’s candidate.

However, he had told the media that the party was yet to make a final decision on its presidential candidate, while adding that Perera was among the list of candidates being considered at present.

It is learnt that Basil had also carried out a fact-finding mission on how another news report quoting Namal Rajapaksa saying that the party had not discussed or decided about Perera had been published in the media. Basil had found that the news had reached the media through one of Namal’s loyalists.

Basil, it is learnt, is also mindful of the role being played by Namal on building his image as an Opposition parliamentarian with the aim of winning back the public support lost by the Rajapaksas in the past few years.

Namal had shown his political stances during the 2024 Budget debate where he had abstained from both the second and third reading votes while he also abstained from the Value Added Tax (VAT) Amendment Bill vote, where increasing the tax from 15% to 18% was approved.

MR’s stance

However, SLPP Leader, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR) adopted a different policy from his son Namal. MR voted in favour of the Wickremesinghe Government’s 2024 Budget as well as the VAT Amendment.

Nevertheless, MR last week made an interesting statement slamming the Government’s tax policy and its burden on the people. This statement also gathered criticism from the likes of Sunil Handunnetti of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), who claimed the MR was behaving like “re Daniel, daval Miguel”. Handunnetti had claimed that MR was critical of increasing taxes after voting to increase VAT.

MR had said in the statement that President Wickremesinghe had successfully restored law in the country and the primary duty of the SLPP was to therefore ensure a stable government until the next national elections.

However, MR had elaborated on the tax policy, saying that every member of the public should pay special attention to the tax policy and the past economic practices of the political party they voted for.

He had added that while his party was part of the Government, the incumbent the Head of State was the leader of a different party with different policies.

No retirement for MR

Meanwhile, MR has recently stated that his future in politics depends on the political situation that will prevail next year.

He had said during an interview with a private electronic media channel that he had no intention of retiring from politics.

There was much talk recently in political circles on whether MR would look at retiring from active politics by handing over the party leadership to another. However, MR was re-elected as the Leader of the SLPP at the party’s convention this month.

SLPP office bearers

The SLPP appointed its new office bearers last week, but left the post of national organiser vacant this time following a request for Basil who stepped down from the post.

The party’s Executive Committee that met at MR’s official residence following the party convention had taken these decisions. Kariyawasam was appointed as the party’s General Secretary once again and Minister Pavithra Wanniarachchi was appointed as the new Treasurer of the party. Ven. Uthurawala Dhammarathana Thera was re-appointed as the Chairman of the party.

Meanwhile, the SLPP had also appointed members to its Politburo while new deputy national organisers’ posts were also created.

SLPP General Secretary Kariyawasam has said that as per the SLPP’s new Constitution, all its office bearers had to be appointed anew. “According to our new Constitution, former office bearers were automatically removed. The Executive Committee then met at the official residence of former President and incumbent MP and SLPP Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa and appointed new office bearers,” he had said.

However, it is learnt that Basil is contemplating appointing Dhammika Perera as the SLPP’s National Organiser and it is due to this reason that he had decided not to re-accept the post. It is also learnt that Perera had not yet agreed to take over the role of SLPP’s national organiser.

Basil overseas

Following the discussion within the SLPP about the party’s presidential candidate and the appointment of new office bearers, Basil last week left the country for a brief holiday, it is learnt. Basil is expected to be out of the country for about two months.

SLPP sources noted that Basil had left for the US to spend the holiday season with his family.

He is expected to play an active role in the party’s elections campaigns for next year upon his return to Sri Lanka.

However, it is learnt that Basil had indicated to the party seniors that the SLPP would have to have a clear stand on the party’s candidate at the next Presidential Election in order to proceed with planning the SLPP’s campaign strategy for next year.

Sajith’s finance minister

Meanwhile, President Wickremesinghe and Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa had recently spoken of the individual who would hold the finance portfolio under a government led by Premadasa.

During the last week of the debate on the 2024 Budget in Parliament, President Wickremesinghe was also a frequent speaker during the debates on the budget heads of several ministries under his purview.

After one such speech in the House, where he had taken a usual swipe at Premadasa, Wickremesinghe had walked out of the Chamber when Premadasa was responding to the President. After making his statement, Premadasa had been making his way out of the Chamber when he had seen Wickremesinghe having a chat with several Opposition parliamentarians in the Opposition lobby.

Premadasa together with several SJB MPs had then made their way towards Wickremesinghe and the other MPs. Approaching the President, Premadasa had said: “Mr. President, how are you doing? You were not in the Chamber to hear my response to your statement.”

Wickremesinghe had responded saying that he had watched Premadasa’s speech from the television in his office in Parliament.

The President had then noted with a smile that he had referred to SJB MP Dr. Harsha de Silva on several occasions in his speech and had asked why Premadasa had not referred to de Silva. “Is Harsha (de Silva) not your finance minister?” he had asked.

Premadasa had quickly responded saying that de Silva would definitely be the finance minister in a government under him.

Hinting about Nalaka

However, the President had responded saying that he was wondering whether Premadasa was having second thoughts about appointing de Silva as the finance minister due to his (Premadasa’s) close affiliation with SLPP dissident MP Nalaka Godahewa.

“I was wondering whether you were looking at making Nalaka Godahewa your finance minister instead of Harsha since you are working a lot with him (Godahewa),” Wickremesinghe had said.

Premadasa had also laughed and said that he had quite a few individuals in his fold capable of holding the Finance portfolio, but that his finance minister would be Harsha de Silva.

Dullas’ group split

Meanwhile, the Freedom People’s Congress (FPC) led by SLPP dissident Dullas Alahapperuma, which has a total of 13 MPs, is now showing internal divisions, with four of its MPs expressing interest in joining the SJB. The four MPs have been identified as Prof. G.L. Peiris, Dilan Perera, Dr. Nalaka Godahewa, and Prof. Channa Jayasumana.

It is learnt that these four MPs had told a meeting of the FPC parliamentary group recently that they should ally with the SJB in view of the ongoing socioeconomic and political issues and that it should be done sooner than later.

Alahapperuma and his loyalists, it is learnt, have opined that they could only provide conditional support to the SJB led by Premadasa under a specific programme.

GL for SJB

FPC member, MP G.L. Peiris meanwhile has stated that the FPC was looking at building a broad Opposition force together with the SJB in the future.

Former Chairman of the SLPP Peiris had pointed out that he intended to safeguard the people against the implementation of ‘extremely dangerous’ economic policies. He had made these statements to the media during a recent visit to Kandy.

Although members of the FPC believe that all MPs in the group should join forces with other Opposition parties against the ruling SLPP and President Wickremesinghe, the differences of opinions have been witnessed on selecting the partners for this broad Opposition coalition. 

Peiris had said that the FPC members had been discussing the formation of an alliance with several political parties such as the SJB, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and the JVP-led National People’s Power (NPP).

However, some members of the FPC claim that there is a slight division about when the FPC should do it. For instance, a few MPs have said that the FPC should form an alliance with the SJB and other possible parties as soon as possible, while some others are of the view that the FPC should wait for some more time.

Ministerial dream

It is in such a backdrop that Alahapperuma has said that members of his parliamentary group want to form an alliance with the SJB.

“Members of our group hold different ideas. This is natural when a party works in a democratic manner. There are divisions in our group but there is no confrontation among us,” Alahapperuma had told the media.

It is learnt that the FPC is facing a dilemma over joining the SJB following objections raised by some SJBers to appointing Alahapperuma as deputy leader of the SJB-led alliance.

Meanwhile, FPC MP Dilan Perera has slammed the members of his group who have expressed views on moving soon to form a political alliance, claiming that the FPC seems to have several MPs who dream of becoming Government ministers.

He had told the media on Monday (18) that an attempt was being made to divide the FPC as President Wickremesinghe was afraid all of its MPs would ally as one formidable group.

SJB takes a stand

Meanwhile, the SJB has unanimously decided not to join any political alliance led by incumbent President Wickremesinghe.

The SJB statement came amidst media reports that claimed a split within the party following a recent statement by Party Leader Premadasa regarding talks to unite him and his former leader, Wickremesinghe.

Premadasa has vowed that neither he nor anyone in his party would join any future political alliance led by President and UNP Leader Wickremesinghe, claiming that SJB has the capability to win any prospective election.

Against this backdrop, SJB Chief Organiser Tissa Attanayake has said that the SJB has unanimously decided not to form any political alliance with those who do not have a proper mandate as well as with the culprits of the ongoing economic crisis. 

According to Attanayake, several political groups are attempting to create tension between the party leadership and the membership via various statements and almost all the MPs and the supporters have understood what Premadasa hinted at in his speech.

He added that the SJB had already started discussions with the mainstream Opposition parties and the SLPP breakaway groups regarding future elections. 

The SJB is to officially announce its broad political alliance in January.

Taking action

The SJB Working Committee that met last week had made a unanimous decision to act against any member of the party attempting to create internal dissention.

Some members of the Working Committee had opined that certain SJB members were working according to a Government agenda to create rifts within the party and prevent the formation of a broad political alliance.

After discussing the issues faced by the party, a unanimous decision had been reached to take stern action against any party member acting against the SJB in line with the Government agenda and to reveal their actions publicly.

Talks with TNA

President Wickremesinghe meanwhile held a discussion on Thursday (21) with members of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA).

The discussion had focused on several issues including the land rights issues of the people in the north and east, implementation of laws related to resettlement and reconciliation, issues faced by Sri Lankan refugees in India, and district development issues in the north and east.

President Wickremesinghe had promised on behalf of the Government to the northern and eastern politicians regarding bringing a long-term solution for the historical ethnic issues through the proposed Truth and Reconciliation Bill, which is to be presented to Parliament in January.

TNA MP Karunakaran had said that the President had widely explained the development projects planned for the Northern and Eastern Provinces and the future investments that were to be implemented with the support of foreign companies like Adani Group. 

The Tamil MP had also said that matters related to the implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution and rectifying land distribution issues had been taken into consideration during the meeting. 

ITAK leader

Meanwhile, the Central Committee of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) has decided to elect the new leader of the party on 21 January 2024.

Incumbent Leader R. Sampanthan, who is currently 90 plus years old, is to step down from the leadership to make way for another to take charge.

It is learnt that there are currently two frontrunners for the post – TNA MPs M.A. Sumanthiran and S. Sritharan.

EC awaits CC

While the country is about to enter an election year, the Election Commission (EC) is awaiting a response to its letter sent to the Constitutional Council (CC) requesting the appointment of a suitable person to the EC’s vacant member position.

MP Peiris had recently questioned whether the Government was not appointing a suitable person for the current vacancy in the Election Commission as part of an effort to avoid holding the Presidential and Parliamentary Elections next year.

Meanwhile, Election Commission Chairman R.M.A.L. Rathnayake has told the media: “What is better for any commission is to have its total number of members. Similarly, it is better if all the members are appointed to the Election Commission too. We have also written to the Constitutional Council, requesting it to intervene in the matter and fill the existing vacancy, but we have not been responded to yet.”

He has further said that there is no significant barrier for the Election Commission to carry out its duties and responsibilities due to the prevailing vacancy, but that certain issues may arise in case two or more members disagree on a particular decision. 

The current Election Commission consists of its Chairman Rathnayake and three other members – M.A.P.C. Perera, Ameer Faaiz, and Anusuya Shanmuganathan.

CC’s denial

Meanwhile, the Constitutional Council has stated that it had not requested the Department of Government Printing to halt the publication of a gazette notification related to a set of rules it had prepared.

In the wake of allegations that President Wickremesinghe had pressured the department not to print a gazette notification related to several rules prepared by the Constitutional Council, Government Printer Gangani Liyanage had stated that it was the Attorney General who had instructed her to do so and that by that time the Constitutional Council had also asked her to halt the relevant publication.

A member of the Constitutional Council has been quoted as saying that they had not asked the department to halt the relevant publication, as claimed by Liyanage. “It was only after obtaining parliamentary approval that we sent those rules to the said department to be gazetted. When we have received parliamentary approval, why should we ask them not to print them? It was the Attorney General who had instructed her to do so.”

Earlier in the month, Opposition politicians had claimed that the President had thwarted the Constitutional Council’s attempt to fulfil its responsibility by preparing laws and rules as required in the current context.