As the 21 September Presidential Election nears, there are signs that the post-vote period will likely see some instability. As of this week, two of the top three contenders for the Presidency seem to be inching forward in the race, and are now neck and neck as they reach the finishing line. 

Given the rhetoric and scale of the campaigns which are being waged, in the event of a close result at the ballot box, it is likely that a dissatisfied candidate could begin to throw all sorts of allegations, conspiracy theories at the victor and the electoral process. Like what transpired in the United States between Trump and Biden, a dissatisfied candidate can label the election as being rigged, triggering significant public anger towards the state.

Given the long-standing public anguish at how the nation has been governed, and with nearly 30% of the population below the poverty line, it is not far-fetched to think that conspiracy theories and allegations of electoral misconduct can move to mobilise disgruntled people to take to the streets. Sri Lankans have been crying out for a change in the system of governance and the political culture which had seen the country collapse. As such, given the disdain the public has towards the State, if the losers of the 21 September Election were to not accept the outcome in a democratic manner, Sri Lanka may well find itself in another period of political and social upheaval. 

In 2022, tens of thousands of citizens took to the streets and stormed the Presidential House and Secretariat leading to the overthrowing of a democratically elected President – with a significantly large mandate, and his Prime Minister in a matter of weeks. If not for the armed forces standing their ground near the Parliament, Sri Lanka would have seen regime change through violence, ending a long history of democratic change. Similarly, in the United States, defeated candidate Trump encouraged his supporters to storm the Capitol Building two months after the election in order to prevent the counting of Electoral College votes to formalise Biden’s victory. The call resulted in thousands of Trump supporters storming the building, leading to utter chaos and multiple fatalities. Politics in the US has never been the same, with communities now significantly alienated. Recently in Bangladesh, a wave of protests toppled the authoritarian leader of the country, forcing her to seek refuge in India.   

With what transpired in 2022 fresh in the minds of the populous, the public push for change is significant. With the public increasingly rejecting the traditional forms of politics in Sri Lanka, it is likely that the victor on the 21 September will likely be writing a new chapter in Sri Lankan history. Up to date, this election run up has been largely peaceful, and the fact that no major incidents of violence has been seen is encouraging. However, with emotions running high, and a palpable thirst for change in governance, the risk of post-election instability remains high. It is reliably learnt that post-election instability and risk of violence has been taken up at several meetings attended by senior government officials. Given the absence of an Inspector General of Police, maintaining law and order during post-elections is more complicated than normal.  It is also learnt that the Police and the security establishment have consulted the Attorney General about post-election maintenance of peace and order.

Given that this election period is fueled by emotions and frustration, it is incumbent upon all candidates to call on their supporters to act with restraint even in the face of provocation. 

Sri Lanka, can ill-afford instability. Our region is already unstable, with the Maldives, Pakistan and Bangladesh struggling with multiple crises and their own public movements for change. Sri Lanka is also no stranger to external influence, influence operations, with some actors waiting for an opportune moment to further their agendas. Therefore, irrespective of the final outcome and who becomes president, Sri Lanka needs to remain calm and cautious about agitations, both local and foreign, that may aim to destabilise our home, and take advantage of our moment of weakness. We also owe it to ourselves to ensure a smooth transition, if one occurs and to do so democratically. No matter who becomes president, Sri Lanka needs to survive. Our people have suffered enough, let us not shoot ourselves in the foot, when we have a long way to go before we can rest.