The unfortunate deaths last week of two Sri Lankan ex-service personnel out of an estimated contingent of 70 or so – all duly discharged – who have chosen to battle the Russians in Ukraine over retirement in Sri Lanka is an eye opener, if ever there was one, of the level of hope that the average citizen has of a better tomorrow in the land of their birth. Even though this group of 70 or so ‘mercenaries’ constitute a fraction of the hundreds and thousands seeking greener pastures overseas these days, it symbolises the utter desperation of the younger generation for a better shot at life, wherever it might take them.
That governance will change for the better any time soon will remain a distant dream, judging by the antics of those currently presiding over the destinies of this resplendent island, where justice and good governance remain utopian ideals limited to promissory political propaganda. Meanwhile, as another year draws to a close and Sri Lankans attempt to celebrate their second festive season as a bankrupt nation, there is much to ponder and reflect on, on how to turn things around at least for the sake of Sri Lanka’s youth.
By end-2023, the incumbent leadership will be close to completing one-and-a-half years at the helm. A cursory glance at the events that have unfolded over the course of this period point to yet another litany of missed opportunities, where, despite overwhelming support of the citizenry to usher in accountability-based governance, what has transpired is the opposite, with corrosive, petty, party, and personal politics taking precedence over everything else.
It is indeed unfortunate that the leadership has chosen to turn a deaf ear to the people and their continuing, albeit silent, demand for meaningful change – the kind that will give future generations a fighting chance to make it good in their motherland – something that their older folks never really tried or fought for. After all, today’s youth are only too aware of the fact that the present generation of politicians has already sacrificed their next generation to debt.
When the current Executive was elected to office by Parliament – notwithstanding the circumstances – there was a silent prayer that, given his last avatar as captain of the ‘good governance’ project, he would leverage on the unprecedented public goodwill that was his for the taking at the time, to provide answers to the burning issues.
But almost 18 months down the line, that goodwill has all but evaporated, given that governance has only gone from bad to worse, with even ministers who stand up to corruption being shown the door. The fact that the working class is worse off economically than they have ever been and sacrifice is the name of their survival game while the ruling class continues to make merry at their expense is not lost on the citizenry They are very much aware that the entire burden of resurrecting the economy has been placed on their emaciated shoulders, rather than those accused of embezzlement, fraud, and tax evasion. Although the regime has attempted to deflect criticism coming its way for the debilitating taxation by pointing the finger at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) bailout programme, at least one MP is on record stating that there is no such requirement in that agreement.
It appears that the regime, rather than taking the bull by the horns and re-calibrating the economy, has taken the easy way out by taxing the public and dipping into their retirement funds to keep the ship afloat. It is futile to assume that the absence of fuel and gas queues is a sign of economic recovery, because, at least in the opinion of the learned, it is the result of a combination of freezing external debt repayments, raising taxation, and hiking utility prices by almost 100%. This in turn has led to the disappearance of disposable incomes, leading to falling demand for products and services.
The real measure of economic growth must necessarily come from growth in Gross Domestic Product, which is heavily reliant on export growth. According to data, despite 2022 being a comparatively low base year given the impact of the Covid pandemic, cumulative merchandise exports during the period from January to October 2023 decreased by 10.54% to $ 9,879.8 million compared to the corresponding period of 2022. More concerning is that Sri Lanka’s main export revenue generator, the apparel and textile sector, has shown a drastic decrease of 20.05% Year-on-Year to $ 353.3 million in October 2023 compared to the same period last year. Sri Lanka’s other export staple, tea, which made up 12% of merchandise exports, decreased by 12.02% Year-on-Year to $ 95.63 million in October 2023 compared to October 2022.
It is basic economics that economies rely on the concept of exchange of money for products and services. Falling incomes appear to be having a multifaceted impact on economic activity, with demand for non-essential consumer goods continuing to decline. Market surveys indicate that most households are opting for cheaper substitutes like soap instead of shampoo, plain tea instead of milk tea, etc., leading to factories having to shut down entire production lines. This in turn impacts the entire production chain from sourcing of raw materials to transport and logistics, putting thousands of jobs at stake.
While there are concerns as to whether holistic economic reform is getting the attention it deserves given the worrisome export data in particular and the state of governance in general, citizens have every right to question as to why there is scant regard for the IMF’s governance diagnostic that identified 16 critical areas that required reform and the continuing delay in obtaining the second tranche of the IMF bailout that technically should have materialised three months ago.
Sri Lanka must surely rank among the handful of nations identified as being the easiest to govern, or rather misgovern, given the absolute lack of accountability for those entrusted with governing it. Not only do they get away with anything and everything, it has now come to a point where even Supreme Court decisions are routinely disregarded. Since 2018 there have been at least three significant Supreme Court rulings directed at the highest political authorities that have failed to attract follow-up action from the powers that be, who in fact could have used them to show the people that justice is not only done but also seen to be done.
In 2018, following the infamous presidential coup that dethroned the ‘good governance’ regime of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, the Supreme Court held that the then President had violated the Constitution and the status quo ante was restored thereafter. But no one in government since has thought it fit to charge the ex-President for his high-handed act.
To make matters worse, this same ex-President was found guilty of dereliction of duty in the Easter Sunday terror attacks and was fined Rs. 300 million by the Supreme Court. The amount was to have been paid by last June but only a fraction of it has been paid up. Can an ordinary citizen act in a similar manner and expect the same leniency?
The latest is the Supreme Court ruling identifying those responsible for the economic collapse. With the court having done its part, it is up to those holding the levers of power to take the next step, but, here again, there is a notable lack of action.
Given this abject apathy of the ruling class to address the elephant in the room – effective, accountable governance – the younger generation of this nation will likely resort to one of two things: seek greener pastures even if they are in deadly battlefields of the world or do their own governance diagnostic and act upon it.