The Maldives, Sri Lanka’s archipelagic neighbour, which weathered some political and geopolitical turbulence over the last two years, seems to be ‘settling’ down and mending fences with the regional giant, India. Like many in the South Asian region and in the Indian Ocean, the Maldives, has a complex history with India, and over the last few years saw a surge in anti-Indian sentiments. The big state–small state relationship India has had with the smaller island nations near its orbit, has always been complex and at times confrontational.

With the emergence of People's National Congress’s Mohamed Muizzu and their political ideology which emphasised national sovereignty, anti-corruption, and end foreign military stationing in the archipelago, anti-indian sentiments rose. Muizzu went on to win the Presidential Election and tilt the Maldives away from India’s sphere of influence. However, the ‘tilt’ which included defence agreements with China, with basing opportunities for visiting Chinese research vessels, did not lead the Maldives to economic prosperity as it thought. The Maldives following its change of government and characterisation of India as a ‘bully’, an opinion governments of other Indian Ocean nations have held at some stage over the last five decades. However, within a year of Muizzu taking office, the Maldives found herself in deep economic trouble and in need of assistance. It must be noted that the Maldivian economy was not in the best shape when Muizzu took over. Early on under the new government, despite the ‘India-out’ campaign, Male had requested India and China restructure debt owed. Early this year, the Maldives debt-to-GDP ratio was around 110%, and as of the third quarter, the foreign reserves were $ 360 million, which experts believe is worth approximately one month’s imports bill. However, it is clear that despite economic hardships the Maldives has faced, and the inroads China had negotiated with Muizzu, Beijing remains hesitant to offer new loans and work on debt restructuring. The Maldives owes approximately $ 1.1 billion to China.

As such, one year into Muizzu’s Government, the messaging from Malé has changed. Recently, the Maldivian President visited New Delhi to mend fences and seek the regional giant’s assistance.  The visit also attempts to revive affected bilateral relations, with multiple projects and assistance programmes discussed. The visit will offer mutual benefits for both nations, with the archipelago receiving much-needed financial relief. This visit will likely pave the way for more cooperation between both nations. India, which was deeply troubled by the China tilt of the Maldives, an important island chain in the now geopolitically contested Indian Ocean, has also made progress by accommodating Muizzu’s unprecedented five-day official visit to New Delhi, and made inroads to regain some influence in the archipelago.

However, one can expect the Maldives will continue to balance India and China when it comes to influence, and or pit one against the other for key projects. However, there is growing concern in the region about increased basing options for both Indian and Chinese naval forces around the IOR. None of the smaller states have expressed a desire to see the Indian Ocean Region become militaries and a zone of conflict. Given what’s happening in the South China Sea, the Baltic and the Palk Strait, smaller states are fearful of the power play of larger powers. Following Muizzu coming to power, and the Malé–New Delhi verbal sabre rattling on tourism, the Indian Navy commissioned a Naval detachment in Minicoy, in the Lakshadweep archipelago as ‘INS Jatayu’ in March this year.

“The event marks an important milestone in the Navy’s resolve to incrementally augment security infrastructure at the strategically important Lakshadweep Islands,” the Indian Ministry of Defence said, issuing a press release on the matter. Minicoy, one of the southernmost islands of the Lakshadweep archipelago and is the closest Indian territory to the Maldivian archipelago. Indian had initially established a small Naval detachment Minicoy in early 1980s. Minicoy is the southernmost island of Lakshadweep which straddles the vital Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs).