As the countdown to Sri Lanka’s pivotal Presidential Elections progresses, voters find themselves torn between two desires. Firstly, there is an undeniable dynamic for a significant change. It follows a global trend against overthrowing the party or leader in power. This desire to change Sri Lanka’s long-standing political culture and style of governance, has today morphed into an emotionally driven rejection of the existing status quo, with many younger voters passionately involved in politics for the first time. 

In Sri Lanka, this wave began with the Aragalaya protest movement and kind of fizzled out after former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was ousted. However, the phenomenon seems to have returned, mustard and was reorganised by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) movement. The second, is the desire to sustain the relative stability which some feel should continue in order to effect an economic recovery. With the second, many believe that while the situation post Ranil Wickremesinghe rising to top office, is not ideal but is the best form of stability Sri Lanka can muster given the domestic and international landscape as of today.

It is by now (17) evident that the 2024 Presidential Election, which began as a three horse race, seems to be streamlining towards a two horse one. When the Election was announced, it was a tripolar race between incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and leader of the National People’s Power Anura Kumara Dissanayake. However, today public sentiments from across the country point to the race between the two younger candidates, Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Nevertheless, it may be too early to cast aside incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe from the race. With decades of experience in governance, the credit of steering a sinking ship some distance to safety when others would not take the helm, and having a strong support base in the minority communities, Wickremsinghe has often been called a ‘political survivor’. However, Wickremesinghe is handicapped with the fact that his campaign is mainly run by defectors from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) many of whom have been widely discredited by the public. With Namal Rajapaksa contesting the SLPP votes will likely be split, and it is likely that SLPP voters will not rally around Wickremesinghe. His own party, the once leading political force in the island, the United National Party (UNP) is today in shambles and is hardly operational.  

It is heartening to see that despite diverse views on how Sri Lanka can be ‘rebuilt’ both the Premadasa-led SJB and Dissanayake-led NPP have found some middle ground that they do not want to drop out of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) agreement entered into with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and wishes to tweak some of its framework parameters to offer some relief for the masses which have been hit by an unprecedented battery of austerity. With Sri Lanka’s poverty growing rapidly since 2021, the hunger for relief, especially from the soaring cost of living is evident. Both the SJB and NPP have on principle stated in the manifestos that they plan to stay with the broader IMF agreement. However, the risk factor of either of them once in Government attempting to fine tune or review the debt sustainability agreement (DSA) remains a concern. Last week, IMF Director of Communications Julie Kozack, stated; “First, it's very important to note, of course, that for the upcoming elections, this is really for the people of Sri Lanka to decide, right.  Achieving the program's objectives is a key priority to give Sri Lanka a chance to emerge from one of its worst crises in history.  As I've already noted, a lot of progress has been made, but the country is not out of the woods yet, and it is important to safeguard those hard won gains”.

As such, as Sri Lankans near one of the most important elections of the 21st century for the island, the future trajectory of the island remains in their hands. It is important that Sri Lankans vote, and not give up on the democratic process. Every vote counts and matters. When you vote, you become a part of the process and part of governance. Otherwise you are a victim of someone else’s choice.