“This is the only way forward”, President and Minister of Finance Ranil Wickremesinghe told  Parliament yesterday (13), quoting Bertolt Brecht’s famous lines in The Caucasian Chalk Circle, while taking a victory lap, patting his Government and himself on the back for “managing to recover (reach stability) in a remarkably short span”.

Wickremesinghe said that: “Those individuals who, with immense dedication, endured these tribulations for the sake of our nation, as well as those who stood alongside me in the Parliamentary arena, are deserving of pride. They are esteemed participants in the collective effort to steer our country away from the precipice of bankruptcy. I am confident that the contributions of these individuals will be etched in gold in the records of our history”. The fact that Wickremesinghe could say this while he sits beside those who have been found guilty by the Supreme Court of being part of the cause of the worst economic crisis in living memory, is a testament to the unevolved nature of the corrosive political culture in Sri Lanka. It is only in a few countries like ours, where a national leader could say we can smell roses now, while standing next to a pile of turd.  

While what the Government has managed to achieve in stopping the economic crisis from worsening is commendable, it is not a time to rejoice. Yes, we have stabilised, and yes in saying this is the way forward, we know the general direction we should travel in. But at what cost? More importantly, is it a cost the ordinary citizen can continue to shoulder? The fact that Sri Lanka has been afforded the send trench of the $ 2.9 billion bailout by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a victory, but a victory at a cost. A cost many in the upper echelons of power and policymaking seldom feel. The President said the collective suffering was not in vain.

What the President, the IMF and many in the Government do not fathom or are tone-deaf to, are the ground realities that the ordinary folk have to deal with. While the situation has improved, it still remains extremely harsh to a majority of the population. Today, the cost-of-living for many is unbearable, and while changes to taxation are needed, how long does the Government plan to flog the suffering masses with more austerity measures? The proposed increase in the tax and the likely impact it has on utilities, transport and cost-of-living in 2024, will worsen the already unbearable existence for many below the poverty line. And the crisis of the last two years has pushed many in the lower-middle class and the middle class, below the poverty line. The absence of commodities, and prolonged waits in queues does not spell an end to strife. Today, many Sri Lankans, mostly the urban poor, will not have a festive season this December. They have little to celebrate about, and little to celebrate with, especially with commodity prices tipped to be hiked towards the end of the month.

The lack of queues, may also be an indication that many people have given up on some services and commodities, as they are no longer within their reach. Straggling to face conditions at home, many young Sri Lankans are pushing hard to migrate. This may allow Sri Lanka to observe a short-term influx of dollar remittance, but will likely create long-term socio-economic issues which we will have to face in a few years’ time.

Economics cannot and should not be viewed based on numbers on accounts sheets alone. An economy which is recovering but is increasingly out of reach for the masses, will likely not go anywhere and collapse again. Therefore, when the President claims, “this is the only way”, we need to ask why, and for how long?

The “bitter reality” for the masses hasn't changed. At least not at a noticeable level. The collective suffering endured was not in vain, as the President said. But it hasn’t reduced as well. 

While the direction Sri Lanka needs to travel is clear, how long Sri Lanka can endure it remains to be seen. Sri Lanka may well recover from bankruptcy, but, at the end, it may be an unrecognisable husk of what it used to be.