The current administration appears to be running out of ideas and clutching at straws to prop up the image that it is on the ball in turning things around on the economic front. Two recent events – the visits of the French President and Japanese Foreign Minister and how these visits were portrayed by the Government media outlets – point to such a conclusion.

For all intents and purposes, the so-called visit of the French President had more to do with a flight requirement where his aircraft needed refuelling than an official State visit. In fact, the French President had not ventured outside of the Bandaranaike International Airport during the brief transit, but it was nevertheless hyped up as a diplomatic coup on the part of the administration.

With regard to the Japanese Foreign Minister’s visit, the State media reported that among the topics that were discussed during a meeting with the President was the recommencement of Japanese-funded development projects such as the controversially-cancelled Light Rail Transit project, BIA expansion, etc. Interestingly enough, no such mention was made by the Minister in his comments to the international media, pointing to yet another botched attempt to portray success.

It appears that the regime is acutely aware of the need to camouflage the actual state of the economy, with revival proving to be much tougher than anticipated. One telling indication that things don’t appear to be going to plan is the decision to increase the local debt ceiling by a whopping Rs. 9 trillion. For a country that is still categorised as bankrupt and not in a position to service its external debt commitments yet, piling on an additional Rs. 9 trillion to the debt stock is certainly indicative of a deepening crisis.

The absence of fuel queues and uninterrupted electricity appears to have created the perception that the economy is on the mend, but, ironically enough, the numbers tell a very different story. In fact, according to the latest Central Bank data, the economy shrank by a massive 11% in the first quarter of this year compared to less than half that – 5% – under the deposed former President during the same period last year. Given the weak export earnings reported so far this year, with a Cabinet Minister even going on to predict an overall drop of 22% in export earnings this year, the second quarter is likely to follow the same pattern unless some miracle takes place.

What is cause for concern is the rapid decline of the manufacturing sector that has contracted by 32% in the first quarter, largely driven by the weakening apparel sector, which is facing its toughest test of endurance since it came into being in the early ’90s. Survival is now the name of the game for the sector, which has to wrestle with not only domestic concerns in the form of high taxation and rising utility and logistics costs, but also a weakening global marketplace that is significantly dampening demand.

Adding to the revival woes are the less-than-desirable tourism earnings that so far this year have averaged around $ 165 million a month. At this rate earnings for the year will be around $ 2 billion – well short of the targeted $ 2.7 billion. What the numbers indicate is that even though the arrival numbers have picked up, earnings have not increased proportionately, meaning that the majority of arrivals fall into the budget category.

Tourism, being a low-hanging fruit as far as revenue is concerned, must necessarily be first nurtured and then harvested carefully in order to maximise earning potential. Trying to cash in on this cash cow without first nurturing the product in order to draw the ‘right’ type of tourists will ultimately prove counterproductive and even end up killing the cow.

As is normally the case, desperation to shore up the numbers appears to have attracted the attention of various schemers and scammers who, in the guise of promoting tourism, are attempting to cash in on the desperation of the tourism authorities. One such instance is the ‘World Travel Awards’ announced by the State Minister of Tourism last week. Having previously been suckered into believing that Disneyland was ready to set up shop here, this ‘Travel Show’ in the making appears to be a similar episode, where nomination for awards can be secured with a ‘registration’ payment. On closer investigation, the London-based event organising company seems to be a family affair set up with a princely capital of GBP 200 and does not appear to have an office of its own.

These recurring episodes of hyping up mediocre events goes to show the desperation of the administration to spin a positive web over what is distinctly a deepening economic crisis compounded by the absence of anything resembling a revival plan. It doesn’t take a genius to pronounce that the only way out of the mess is to grow exports, including tourism, but in doing so, the administration must be careful not to plunge in head first. A well-thought-out and mapped out strategy with short-, mid-, and long-term goals is the need of the hour in order to stem the tide in the export sector.

The administration must come to terms with the fact that the burning issue for this nation into the foreseeable future will continue to be its economic crisis. Therefore all of its energies must necessarily be spent on resolving that singular issue. At the same time, it must realise that every one of its actions will have consequences for the issue at hand and therefore be mindful of the intended and unintended impact.

It cannot be beyond the comprehension of the administration that economic emancipation will necessarily require political unity in this fractured nation epitomised by its fractured Parliament. By attempting to add more ingredients to the fire by way of the 13th Amendment, something no one has asked for at this juncture in view of the bigger issue at hand, the administration appears to be attempting to muddy the waters and divert attention from issue numero uno.

Be that as it may, law and order and the rule of law must necessarily qualify as the single most profoundly important component that is directly connected to resolving the crisis at hand. No economy, try as one might, can ever be put right in the absence of that critical component. It is unfortunate that the administration is still at a loss to understand this basic concept. Appointing cops tainted by innumerable allegations against their names to fight crime and put things right is confirmation of this lack of understanding. In the same vein, mispronunciation of a word in the National Anthem has necessitated an official inquiry by law enforcement, while there is apparently no necessity to investigate and inquire into those responsible for bankrupting this nation. It is not for nothing that justice must not only be done, but also be seen to be done.

Rule of law must ensure that not only should the rights of citizens be respected and protected, but also ensure zero tolerance for corruption and impunity from the highest to the lowest in the land. Unless and until the administration in power either now or in the future has the determination and will to understand and safeguard that fundamental concept, economic emancipation will never really be on the agenda. The proletariat will continue to fall for hyped-up fairy tales that give just enough hope of a better tomorrow that will never come.