With a palpable sense of election fever gripping the nation given its significance as probably the most anticipated election in the post-independent history of this nation, not only are the parties and candidates gearing up to capitalise on what will surely be a watershed event, but some among the lot appear to be having other plans, resorting to being party poopers: testing the waters to pave the way for an ultimate non-event. In this regard, all kinds of scenarios are being floated, in the hope that something will gain traction. Fortunately for this nation, nothing has, and chances are, nothing will. Meanwhile, those dangling the bait are realising that the people are a lot harder to fool this time around.
Having been through hell and back over the course of the last five years since the previous election, the average voter is now wiser and eminently more difficult to fool thanks to the hard lessons learnt along the way. The information explosion on the three main platforms – print, electronic, and social – over the course of the last five years and the ever-growing accessibility to this information reservoir through digital channels have left the political class exposed and vulnerable. Today a slip of the tongue or moment of recklessness could be politically fatal and politicians across the board are realising this the hard way. Digital media is also making both life and lying that much harder as past speeches and promises can be recalled in an instant through the click of a button.
To the credit of the deposed former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, even before his unceremonious exit, he made several public speeches outlining his take on where this country had gone wrong. Whether he realised it or not, his advice to the people was profound in the current context: “If some politician has promised something and was elected on the strength of that promise but never delivered when in office, don’t ever elect that politician again. You cannot keep on voting for the same people and expect different results each time. That is not going to happen.” Insightful words indeed, now that elections are round the corner.
Be that as it may, those testing the waters seeking an election postponement do not seem to have given up trying. First, we had the General Secretary of the President’s party, the United National Party (UNP), making an outlandish suggestion that the election schedule be folded up and put away for two years, allowing the incumbent to continue and ‘complete the IMF reform programme’. However, with civil society and all Opposition parties raising hell, that plan appears to have been dispensed with. Now Plan B has been resorted to, with the same mouthpieces pointing to an apparent constitutional flaw when introducing the 19th Amendment, that purportedly allows the President to continue for six years as originally, through approval of a special majority in Parliament. However, this too has been shot down, with constitutional experts pointing to the spirit in which the 19th Amendment was introduced, limiting the term to five years.
Needless to say, people across all walks of life have been patiently counting the days to the polls ever since the end of the people’s uprising that paved the way for the current interim administration. However, as is to be expected, those installed in power appear to have forgotten about the ‘interim’ nature of the job and have been acting as if it is their God-given right to govern.
Meanwhile, the election strategy of most parties except the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) – which has already submitted a home-grown blueprint for economic revival and placed it on public record – has generally focused on rhetoric rather than substance, with the UNP and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) both content to blindly go along with the IMF programme in its current form.
Therefore, given the adverse circumstances that people in general have been dragged into for no fault of theirs other than exercising their democratic right over the course of the last four years, how they decide to exercise their franchise afresh in such a backdrop will serve as a litmus test of not only the tolerance and maturity level of voters, but also as to how much pain they are willing to endure in support of their party alliances given the recent experience.
It will be recalled that while the architect of the current revival effort was made a nonentity by voters at the last election, with the UNP being wiped clean off the electoral scoreboard – a heavy price for non-delivery of the main election promise of 2015 of “catching the rogues” – whether the seemingly moderate gains of economic recovery will be set off against that blemish in the election to follow, only time will tell. The fact that that blemish has now been compounded by forming an alliance with the same entity that now additionally stands convicted of causing Sri Lanka’s economic bankruptcy is not likely to help the party’s cause.
As far as the IMF is concerned, it could not have possibly asked for a better deal, which explains the unusual leniency shown to the regime despite it consistently falling short of implementing governance targets by a significant margin. However, it must be remembered that economic nomenclature associated with Sri Lanka’s economic crisis also serves as an eye-opener of sorts as to how the troubles are perceived by different entities.
For instance, while the IMF continues to be portrayed as Sri Lanka’s economic saviour, the commercial terms associated with its monetary disbursement package hardly differ from the Chinese credit terms, with interest rates running neck and neck. The supreme irony is that an entity that is charging a not insignificant interest component on its disbursement facility is considered a panacea for the crisis caused by Chinese entities at comparable interest rates.
Meanwhile, seemingly emboldened by the leniency on agreed reform targets, the regime appears to have not wasted time in having its way with key administrative appointments in the past few weeks, in stark contradiction of good governance standards outlined by the IMF in its Governance Diagnostic.
Nevertheless, the IMF, unlike the regime, appears to have its ears to the ground and seems sensitive to the aspirations of the people. While the regime has been going to great lengths to paint a picture of the reform programme being derailed by elections and therefore justifying the call for a delay, the IMF on Friday issued a statement that poured cold water on this contention, emphasising that it is ready to adapt to the democratic process in Sri Lanka and that when elections are called, it stands ready to discuss with authorities as to how the programme schedule can be accommodated, according to its Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka.
Meanwhile, it appears that the regime has put election compulsions ahead of the national interest despite the dire circumstances the country finds itself in and the projection of relative stability. In fact the IMF adverted to this fragility in its remarks on the completion of the third review. The IMF noted that “performance under the programme has been strong. Nevertheless, the economy is still vulnerable and the path to debt sustainability remains knife-edged” – meaning, little or no room for error, going forward. Being very much aware that the prime cause of the crisis has been governance failures, it is incomprehensible that the regime continues to tread on that dangerous path, while seeking election to office at the same time.
In the recent past the administration has thrown caution to the wind and has appointed those whom it favours to key positions, going against every semblance of the concept of good governance – which concept incidentally was propagated by the incumbent President back in 2015. But all that has been thrown to the wind while the IMF looks the other way, Governance Diagnostic notwithstanding.
Some of the contentious appointments in recent times include that of the current IGP who carries the black mark of having being convicted by the Supreme Court for violation of human rights, the Chief of Defence Staff who has been the recipient of multiple service extensions for no plausible reason, and, to top it all, now an unprecedented attempt being underway to extend the term of the Attorney General, whose claim to fame is the abysmal state of the once-proud Attorney General’s Department.