A significant drop in Sri Lanka’s annual birth rate amidst an increase in annual deaths, while indicating long-term impacts for the country’s population dynamics, also underscores the repercussions of its recent upheavals.
Speaking to The Sunday Morning, Senior Deputy Registrar General Lakshika Ganepola shared that the registration of births had dropped while deaths had increased, noting that this was a global trend.
“The registration of births which was over 300,000 previously has dropped to below 300,000 since around 2-3 years ago, while death registrations have gradually increased. This is not unique to Sri Lanka but a global trend. There has been no significant changes in marriage numbers.”
Accordingly, she revealed that the number of annual births, which was around 325,000 before 2020, had now decreased to 280,000. Meanwhile, the number of annual deaths has increased to around 180,000, compared to 140,000 before 2020.
Ganepola said that this indicated a significant decline in the total population of Sri Lanka, with migration being the primary cause.
Observers have predicted that Sri Lanka’s demographic profile has started to change. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), in a few decades, nearly a fourth of Sri Lankans will be over 60, with the vulnerable 80-year-old-and-above population increasing rapidly. Data further shows that the working age population is decreasing while the number of dependent elderly people is increasing.
While having an increasing number of the population being over 65 is fairly typical for Asia and the Pacific, the ADB notes that Sri Lanka is however demographically unique as the only South Asian country with an ageing population, with the country’s demographic transition unfolding at a lower level of per capita income.
According to Department of Census and Statistics data on the mid-year population for 2023, the period of July 2012 to June 2013 had seen 352,450 registered births. By the period of July 2013 to June 2014, the number of registered births had increased to 361,800.
Since then this number has gradually decreased every year and during the period of July 2022 to June 2023, the number of registered births was 268,920.
Furthermore, the number of registered deaths from July 2012 to June 2013 was 125,626 and by the period of July 2022 to June 2023, there had been a gradual growth to 190,600.
Thus, the average annual population in 2023 decreased by 144,395 compared to 2022, considering the decrease of births, increase of deaths, and the immediate increase in the population that left the country.
Health impacts
Speaking to The Sunday Morning, University of Colombo Faculty of Arts Department of Demography Professor Emeritus W. Indralal de Silva said that deaths had increased significantly during the last five years due to the Covid-19 pandemic as well as the economic recession.
Firstly, he noted that researchers in certain countries argued that Covid vaccines were having long-term side effects on people, impacting the death rate even after the pandemic, while those who had survived Covid also had a higher risk of mortality due to the illness aggravating existing problems.
Secondly, the economic recession ensures that people do not have access to proper nutrients in addition to a significant number not getting prescriptions and evaluation done by medical professionals, with people avoiding private sector treatment while turning to State sector hospitals despite ongoing issues with the quality of State services. This is compounded by the fact that many medical professionals, especially specialists, have left the country.
“All this has contributed to impacting people’s health, leading to a sizeable number facing Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs),” Prof. de Silva said, adding: “Primarily, an increased proportion of people are now afflicted with NCDs, especially those above 40, with some having multiple NCDs. This can lead to serious health problems and even death without proper treatment. Further, people lack sufficient funds to buy quality medicines and food, all of which leads to poor health.”
He noted that all this could result in the deterioration of Sri Lanka’s life expectancy in the coming years should the situation continue.
“Following the pandemic, many people have had their immunity compromised, leaving them vulnerable to other health issues. Moreover, NCDs are increasing rapidly in Sri Lanka, including heart-related ailments, hypertension, cancer, diabetes, and respiratory illnesses such as asthma.
“Hypertension is a primary factor, which is increasing since people are feeling more stress, not getting sufficiently nutritious food, and attempting to make a living in ways that compromise their health,” he observed.
An ageing population
Prof. de Silva further noted that the implication of the increasing death rate meant that some parents were dying, leading to increasing vulnerabilities among the youth of Sri Lanka, especially given the current context. Moreover, with the youth departing overseas, the isolated elderly parents who are left behind are liable to be a burden for the State, given the weak social security systems in the country.
These developments continue to take place in a backdrop of an increasingly unhealthy younger generation, with malnutrition among children under five years of age being termed a public health concern by the Ministry of Health in its Nutrition Month report for 2023.
The percentage of underweight children under five years was reported to be 17.1%, which is an overall increase compared to 2022. Further, stunting percentages have also increased compared to 2022, although wasting and overweight/obesity had decreased slightly.
Prof. de Silva also noted that a significant number of youth were obese, which meant they already had health problems which could be exacerbated in future through conditions such as diabetes and hypertension. “Since this generation will be unhealthy, their contribution to the economy and family unit will also be weak,” he noted.
Addressing the dropping birth rate, he noted that marriages had been declining since 2022 onward, with economic reasons being a powerful contributor. He further added that migration of primarily men was also having a destabilising effect on the population. “A sizeable proportion of young people, particularly unmarried men aged 20-35, are leaving the country. Therefore, while there are many women, they lack partners.”
Population outcomes
The ADB notes that projections for Sri Lanka show that population growth will taper off and that the country’s population of 21.2 million as of 2018 is likely to peak to around 22.2 million by 2038 before beginning to contract. The population is growing older and will age more rapidly than most of the other developing economies, it states.
Prof. de Silva noted that the declining birth rate, increasing death rate, and the migration of youth was having an adverse impact on the population, leading to significant demographic changes such as negative population growth.
“There is a possibility that the Sri Lankan population will start to decline if these conditions continue for some time,” he cautioned, adding: “Once people get used to the idea of not producing offspring, similar to Japan, Korea, and China, it will be very difficult to increase reproduction.”
He noted that the country’s population was ageing rapidly as well, explaining that all these factors were interconnected. “Youths are migrating, there are fewer births, and the younger population may also start to decline, leaving behind the elderly, who are unable to migrate. However, the increased deaths are undoubtedly largely coming from the 60-and-above group. Therefore, if the deaths continue to rise, it will act as a balancing equation.
“Given that a large number of deaths are occurring among the elderly, one may argue that even the elderly population is declining. However, if you consider the proportion of elderly people in society, it may not decline since many youths are simultaneously leaving the country.”