• A growing need to focus on earthquake-resistant structures
• A 4 on the Richter scale could cause houses of poor to collapse

Experts have warned that while the recent earth tremors may be considered harmless, building codes and insurance schemes to safeguard against a possible disaster must be looked into in order to prevent loss of life and economic damage.

Sri Lanka has recently experienced a series of tremors that have raised concerns among experts about the potential dangers they pose. According to University of Peradeniya Emeritus Professor of Geology C.B. Dissanayake, these tremors have been occurring for a number of years and are caused by the splitting of the Indo-Australian Plate, which is 500-1,000 km south of Sri Lanka. 

“Everyone says that these are only 2.5-3.5 on the Richter scale and therefore minor, so there is nothing to worry about. They say that only quakes that are 6, 7, or 8 on the Richter scale like what happened in Türkiye are dangerous. While that may be true, everybody forgets one thing – earthquakes don’t kill people; buildings do. Even if there is a massive earthquake and you are out in the open, you will be safe, but if you are inside or near a building, then you are in danger.” 

SL buildings unprepared for quakes 

Prof. Dissanayake pointed out that the buildings in Sri Lanka were not built to withstand earthquakes unlike in Japan, where all new buildings were earthquake-resistant. In Sri Lanka, a 4 on the Richter scale could cause the houses of the poor to collapse, putting lives at risk. Furthermore, the economy will suffer if there is an earthquake that causes significant damage. As such, Prof. Dissanayake stressed the importance of proper building standards, particularly for high-rise buildings, and warned against complacency.

“Another issue is that you can’t really predict when an earthquake could happen, but at the same time, you can’t predict the non-existence of an earthquake. One shouldn’t take it for granted just because someone says there won’t be any major earthquakes. Buildings should be built to proper standards, because if there is an earthquake that causes a lot of damage it will hit the economy hard in addition to the lives that will be lost.”

Prof. Dissanayake also highlighted the potential danger of setting up nuclear power plants in Sri Lanka, which could be affected by earthquakes. The country needed to take into account even these minor tremors if it wished to pursue nuclear energy, he noted. 

Lack of insurance a challenge 

Meanwhile, Advocata Institute Chief Executive Officer Dhananath Fernando warned that Sri Lanka must be alert to natural disasters.

“We have to be careful about climate change and the natural disasters that can come our way. If there is a serious earthquake, it can be a serious challenge to our economic recovery process, so that is something we have to be very concerned about.”

He added that a lack of insurance coverage for natural disasters could result in large-scale indebtedness if one were to occur.

“On the insurance side, my understanding is that insurance is not prominent for buildings. What we have in Sri Lanka is mainly vehicle and life insurance. Buildings are not a popular insurance category. So, if there is a disaster, the challenge is that everything will come to a standstill because people don’t have a backup option.”

LIRNEasia Chair Prof. Rohan Samarajiva, who has experience in disaster management, noted that Sri Lanka was not a heavily insured country and that this could have an impact on the economy if an earthquake were to occur. 

According to him, the 2016 Kelani flood caused more economic losses than the tsunami, because many of the affected properties were insured, thus making the losses economically quantifiable. In the case of the tsunami, most of what was damaged was in rural areas and thus uninsured, making their value less quantifiable.

Prof. Samarajiva also stressed the importance of insurance in mitigating the harm caused by disasters. “I have had many conversations with experts and people in the field of disaster response from places like Hawaii. There, a lot of the insurance can be used to mitigate the harms caused by disasters. 

“If you do not demonstrate that you have met the building codes developed for the particular hazards that affect the area, you will not receive insurance or you will have to pay a higher premium. In Hawaii, if you are closer to the coast, your insurance rates are higher unless you have concrete pillars and you can do vertical evacuations, etc. Insurance is an integral tool of responding to disasters and reducing the harms.” 

Hazard assessment needed 

Prof. Samarajiva also pointed out that Sri Lanka’s building codes were not designed for earthquakes, which put more buildings at risk of collapsing or breaking down. In Türkiye, he noted, there had been debate about whether building codes had been adhered to in the wake of the earthquake. Prof. Samarajiva argued that Sri Lanka needed to conduct a hazard assessment, coordinated by the Disaster Management Centre (DMC), to determine the likelihood of earthquakes and the potential damage they could cause.

“What we need is some kind of hazard assessment coordinated by the DMC with the relevant expertise in the same way it did the maps for Mahaweli damage, etc. The DMC has information on what areas are most vulnerable if there is another tsunami. In the same way, it has to make a realistic assessment about the likely damage these tremors could cause. 

“I don’t see short-term responses for these tremors, but there needs to be some kind of initiative to make a realistic assessment. Once the assessment is done, it can be implemented into the building codes and then there can be an insurance-centric communication campaign to get more people to insure properly.” 

Action needs to be taken

While there may be no short-term solutions to the tremors Sri Lanka is experiencing, it is clear that the country needs to take the potential dangers seriously. Building codes need to be reviewed and updated to ensure that buildings can withstand earthquakes. Insurance is also an important tool in mitigating the harm caused by earthquakes and other disasters. A hazard assessment can help to determine which areas are most vulnerable and what measures need to be taken to protect people and property.

It is important to note that earthquakes cannot be predicted with certainty. However, the probability of an earthquake occurring in Sri Lanka cannot be ignored. The Government and relevant authorities need to take action to prepare for the possibility of earthquakes and to reduce the potential harm they could cause. This includes investing in earthquake-resistant buildings, educating people on earthquake safety, and developing a disaster management plan that takes into account the unique risks faced by Sri Lanka.