With the Local Government Elections a near certainty in 2023, new political alignments are being fast-tracked by all concerned parties.

The rejuvenated Pohottuwa with Basil at the helm is working overtime at Nelum Mawatha to pull back its rural supporters who were alienated by GR’s reckless decisions, particularly about fertiliser use and other agricultural inputs. 

Thanks to those decisions, we had the lowest paddy yields for Maha in decades. Paddy purchases were chaotic and the farming community, which is the largest segment of voters in the country, abandoned their favourite leaders – the Rajapaksas – as shown in nationwide farmers’ struggles and the results of latest statistical surveys. 

Provincial leaders have been summoned to Colombo for pep talks and finalising lists of candidates. It is conceded by all that Basil has the best digitised electoral machine and a professional attempt will be made to stem the tide of discontent, but their press conferences show that party seniors are reluctant to meet the media. They have to depend on ‘work horses’ like SB, Sagara, and Sanjeewa. 

Many of the seniors in Cabinet are afraid that their portfolios will be taken away. Some, who have had their houses burnt down, are threatening to join the Opposition if their powers are reduced. One such voluble minister has stopped going back to his hill country electorate because his showpiece house was burnt to cinders. 

All are awaiting Basil’s negotiations with Ranil regarding new appointments. However, the latter has said that a delay is necessary since the IMF will not approve of a jumbo cabinet. Is this the reason why many MPs have started to vilify the IMF and the Governor of the Central Bank? While contrary views are leaked to the media about IMF funding, it is clear now that the earlier projections about relief coming in December are way out. 

Recently the heads of the IMF and the World Bank were in Beijing to fast-track arrangements about debt relief for Zambia, Ghana, and Sri Lanka. Unless the Chinese finalise their relief measures, other favourable developments like those of the Paris Club – which includes Japan, our second largest bilateral creditor – cannot come into play. 

The Central Bank is now putting up feelers about loans from friendly countries as ‘bridging finance,’ which is an indication that talks are unexpectedly delayed. The Government, and particularly the President, needs success on the IMF front before the 2023 elections.

OPPOSITION

The SJB had a successful meeting in Borella where they elected their office bearers as a contrast to their former leader Ranil, who was a leader for life like Fidel Castro. But they still had to face a hoodoo because of the last minute scrambling of the order of speakers.

While Sajith is usually the last speaker, he decided to speak early on the advice that their followers from outstations would start heading home by about six in the evening. [He should know that his father – a superb orator – was always the last speaker on JRJ’s platforms because he could hold the audience spellbound to the end]. This left later speakers like Sarath fuming and openly expressing his displeasure at the diminished audience.

It is a mystery how boring speakers like Tissa could be accommodated when the party’s pinch hitters – including Hirunika – were left unrecognised. The rumour was that Hirunika had overstepped the line by referring to a part of Ranil’s anatomy on an earlier occasion and could not be trusted not to get carried away on the big occasion. Or could it be that some people are becoming a little bit jealous of Hirunika’s popularity in the party as a no-holds-barred street fighter?

Another omission was the ‘gating’ of Rajitha. As Chamuditha said in his TV programme, a public meeting without a speech by Rajitha is like ‘a bath kade without parippu’. Obviously the party is nervous about Rajitha’s moves and we may see a change at the appropriate time. He played coy at the TV interview and the viewer was free to come to his own conclusions. 

A move by Rajitha will be a feather in the cap of Ranil and Basil and a severe blow to the SJB leadership, which has a lot of hot air but no street savvy. Behind the façade of a successful meeting are many crosscurrents which will surface early next year.

BASIL

The return of Basil has helped the Pohottuwa clarify its relationship with Ranil. He says that they wholeheartedly supported Ranil because he was useful to them at that critical juncture. In his words, Ranil helped them “to come into the open political arena”.

This statement has to be seen in the background of the fate of the Rajapaksas during the Aragalaya. GR had to flee the country and MR was held by the Navy in its camp in Trinco to save his life. Basil himself was thwarted in his first attempt to leave for the US. 

Things looked pretty grim then, but Ranil – like Colonel Nicholson in ‘The Bridge on the River Kwai’ – did his duty and the Pohottuwa is back, so some gratitude in keeping him going is in order. To help him and help themselves, a coalition of SLPP with the UNP and a section of the SLFP can become a reality.

But Basil has clearly said that Ranil’s policies are not necessarily the policies of the SLPP. They are only extending conditional support. Thus they reserve the right to insist on their pound of flesh as in the case of Cabinet appointments. They are also wary of other initiatives like constitutional amendments and policies which threaten their Sinhala Buddhist base. However, they are amenable to compromises with Ranil.

The latest is that the SLPP will be satisfied with five new cabinet appointments and not 10 as requested earlier. However, the SLPP will have to take note of one constitutional trump card in Ranil’s hand, namely, come next February, the President can dissolve Parliament and go for a General Election, which could lead to mutual destruction. 

Thus the President and the SLPP are confronting a ‘balance of terror,’ which, like in the global arena, can lead to an uneasy peace even when the Budget and IMF proposals begin to bite next year.

YOUNG MONKS

Wijeweera boasted that he was the political leader who brought young Buddhist monks as political fodder in our country. As a result, many temples and university sangramayas became support centres of the JVP.

Young JVP monks were encouraged to criticise their seniors and take over temples to be JVP ammunition dumps. A tragic consequence of Wijeweera’s decision was the elimination of many radical monks by the armed services. 

The populist decisions of the Bandaranaikes to pander to extremist monks even when in coalition with Left parties has created another anti-State coterie with a counterculture from the traditional role of the Buddhist clergy.

The scoop of our sister Sinhala newspaper Aruna has laid bare the mayhem going on in the Bhikkhu University in Homagama. According to the senior monks in charge of the residential hall, young monks are addicted to drugs and alcohol, indulge in vicious ragging, hold drunken parties, threaten senior monks, and have even prepared a cricket pitch for intergroup matches. Many of them are the foot soldiers who march with the Peratugamis and the JVP.

This disclosure comes only a few days after the former Vice Chancellor (VC) of Peradeniya University and his son were beaten up in their house after an altercation near the Sarachchandra Open Air Theatre. According to the ex-VC, the main culprit – a former President of the Students’ Union who had finished his studies many years ago – not only escaped the Police dragnet, but also held a press conference to proclaim their innocence.

The fact is that even the JVP, which started this type of rowdyism, is now banned from operating on campus by the Peratugamis. The wonder is that the university lecturers who are now boycotting teaching in protest at the violence directed at their colleague did not utter a whimper while all this mayhem was rampant earlier. While they are prone to give ‘pora talk’ on political platforms, they act like the three wise monkeys over the thuggery engulfing the Peradeniya Campus.

FIFA FINAL

After a gruelling tourney, the finalists for the FIFA World Cup –Argentina and France [Les Bleus] – will battle it out on Sunday in Qatar. Many of the fancied teams – Brazil, England, Germany, Croatia, Morocco, and Belgium – have fallen by the wayside. 

The Economist, which used statistical models to predict the winner, failed when its favourite to win, Brazil, was eliminated. It did not fare better than the bird – a parrot co-opted by Derana TV to predict the outcome of the T20 World Cup.

This final will be the last World Cup match for Argentine player Lionel Messi – arguably the best footballer in the world and now 32 years old. His likely successor for the world’s best player position would be Kylian Mbappé of France.

The child of a mixed marriage between an African and Algerian, Kylian grew up in the ‘bon lieu’ or the outskirts of Paris. He is now considered the wonder boy of French football who turns up for the French football club Paris Saint-Germain. The French also have senior players like Olivier Giroud and Antoine Griezmann, who are World Cup veterans.

It will be difficult even for the Derana parrot to predict the outcome of this evenly-matched encounter. The French coach Didier Deschamps, who has successfully piloted his team, says that not allowing the opposition to score is as important as scoring goals. No doubt this is a challenge with Messi in mind as he is a record goal scorer. 

If Les Bleus win, it will be a rare ‘back to back’ victory as they are the present cup winners, which will enable the team to traverse the Champs-Élysées in an open bus to receive the cheers of their admirers who are fanatical football fans. This columnist, who was a supporter of PSG in his Paris days, will be pardoned if he prays for a French victory.

QUOTABLE QUOTE

“We [SLPP] will not give nominations to any corrupt person for the forthcoming Local Government Elections” – Mahinda Rajapaksa. Ha ha.