Sri Lanka, a nation that has braved the ravages of terrorism, rebellions, natural disasters, a pandemic, and a relentless economic crisis, stands on the precipice of another politically-fraught situation as it approaches the pivotal year of 2024. 

As we dissect the intricate web of Sri Lankan politics, it becomes evident that the fibres of lies, deceit, and betrayal are not merely incidental but rather the very fabric that has woven the country’s political landscape since 1994. 

The 1994 Presidential Election was marred by the assassination of United National Party (UNP) candidate Gamini Dissanayake, ending a 17-year-old rule of the Grand Old Party, seating the first and only female Executive President in the country in Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga (CBK). 

Many, including my grandfather, predicted a win for Dissanayake over CBK, but the writing was on the wall, given anti-incumbency. As a young child growing up in an active political family, with a hand in student politics, reading Victor Ivan’s Ravaya, and losing a family member and a few friends in the ’88/’89 armed struggle, CBK’s entry was seen as a breath of fresh air, but ended up being anticlimactic due to the politics at play. 

Despite the 1996 Cricket World Cup win uniting the country for once, we have constantly been divided and that unity will probably never be matched again. I cannot remember the 1983 riots, but the 26-year-old civil war fuelled by terrorism broke the backbone of the country. In 2009, with the war’s end, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa had the golden chance to unite the country, but he did not or could not (depending on your political lens). 

Thousands of people, especially youth of my generation, were killed from all sides. All were Sri Lankans who had fought in vain. India can be seen as a friend of Sri Lanka now, but it was not so then. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s intervention in Sri Lankan politics and her hand in the rise of LTTE is well documented and not contested. Today, the country is trying to rise again, with the support of global superpowers and the resilience of Sri Lankans, despite being deeply divided by politics, religion, and economics. 

Political machinations, subdued celebrations

The recent Christmas celebrations, subdued in the shadow of an economic downturn, mirrored the frugality and restraint of a society grappling with limited resources. The once-bustling streets and shops of pre-2019 now echoed a sad reality, with even the upper middle class of society feeling the pinch of scarcity. 

Despite Sri Lanka being a Buddhist-majority country, Christmas always had a special place. For my non-Sri Lankan readers, Sri Lanka is one of the few countries where you can find a temple, church, a mosque, and a kovil anywhere on the island. In some places, all four of the above can be found within a 1 km radius. Without politics, Sri Lanka would have been a case study in the world of diversity. Where did it go wrong? That is a billion-dollar question.

Yet, amidst this festive peacefulness, the undercurrents of political machinations continue unabated, fuelled by rumours and false narratives.

The year 2024 heralds a crucial phase for South Asia, with India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Bhutan poised for elections. Sri Lanka, too, gears up for a decisive presidential race likely in late August or early September, followed by Parliamentary Elections. This period marks not just a cyclical political event but one that will test the mettle and strategies of key political players.

Ranil Wickremesinghe

President Wickremesinghe, a veteran of political survival, finds himself at a crossroads. Amidst claims by Opposition figures of his potential retreat from the upcoming Presidential Elections, one cannot help but recall Sun Tzu’s wisdom: “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” 

Wickremesinghe’s silence could be a strategic ploy, allowing him to observe the allegiances within his ranks and let opponents prematurely reveal their hand. New alliances require new promises, positions, electoral pacts. More importantly, a leader is required to massage and manage fragile egos of politicians while protecting his/her self interest. 

Mistakes are bound to happen; when self interest is not protected, politicians behave totally irrationally. Is he waiting for others to draw first blood and rework his options based on the circumstances? 

Next year he will be 75 and if he doesn’t run as his critics predicted, he will be spending his last months in politics. Does he look like a man nearing his retirement since his arrival in 1977? Not at all! In 1999 and 2005, he unsuccessfully ran for the presidency. In 2005 it was his to lose and he lost courtesy of a vote boycott from the Northern and Eastern Provinces forced by the LTTE. In 2010, 2015, and 2019, he sidestepped, allowing three other candidates to run. 

Wickremesinghe is Executive President through a parliamentary vote due to previous President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fleeing the country in 2022, due to the political and economic crisis. Why wouldn’t he run in 2024, as opponents say? Or does he want his political enemies to make mistakes in calculations in building alliances? 

Sajith Premadasa and JVP/NPP

The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) have already been in campaign mode; while they are now eyeing the presidential race, they started campaigning for the Local Governmental Elections in early 2023, which never took place. It’s been a long campaign for both parties and sustaining another nine months requires money and resources. 

Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa emerges as a figure of significant interest. His potential alliance and presidential bid could well dictate the trajectory of the upcoming electoral battle. For Premadasa, the stakes are high, with his political legacy hanging in the balance and it’s a do-or-die battle at a young age. 

The JVP/National People’s Power (NPP) seems to be settling with the idea of running a campaign on its own, without the support of any mainstream political parties. Going solo will argue well for their public narrative as Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) vs. the establishment. 

Perhaps, except for AKD, other candidates have to rely on alliances, mostly with different agendas, ideologies, and interests, to capture power. Building partnerships with difficult actors requires serious manoeuvring which always leads to lies, deceit, and betrayal. 

A legacy of betrayals 

With a legacy of betrayals tracing back to 1994, the landscape of Sri Lankan politics has been marked by a series of betrayals and realignments. Wickremesinghe himself has witnessed over a hundred politicians deserting him since 1994. His alliances in 2010 with Sarath Fonseka, in 2015 with Siresena, and his support for the younger Premadasa in 2019 all culminated in abandonment.

CBK, a former President, has consistently opposed the Rajapaksas since 2005, yet faced betrayal from Sirisena shortly after aiding his ascent to power. Sirisena was CBK’s pick as the common candidate in 2015; Wickremesinghe reluctantly gave away his seat to Sirisena for the candidacy. 

The villager Sirisena, after taking the Executive Presidency, outsmarted both aristocrats. However, Wickremesinghe was shrewd enough to cover himself with the constitutional amendment to secure his premiership. 

Mahinda Rajapaksa’s political journey is no less turbulent, with betrayals from his own war-winning Army Commander, Sarath Fonseka, in 2010 and in 2015, his party General Secretary, Sirisena. Fonseka paid the price of losing the election and ended up in jail. 

Sirisena hid in a secret location on the eve of the election and only returned after winning the ballot battle, also courtesy of Wickremesinghe’s assurance after President Mahinda Rajapaksa left office peacefully. 

There were widespread rumours on 9 January 2015 that Rajapaksa would not leave power and possibly even launch a military takeover. Thankfully, he left and there wasn’t any bloodshed. 

Maithripala Sirisena’s political narrative is akin to a Shakespearean drama, marked by a series of betrayals that led him to power. He betrayed his master, Rajapaksa, and then two sponsors, CBK and Wickremesinghe, and, with zero shame, he appointed Mahinda Rajapaksa as the prime minister on 26 October 2018.

The Supreme Court verdict of 7-0 unseated Rajapaksa and seated Wickremesinghe again. Why Sirisena was not impeached is another political mystery. As I always say, ‘House of Cards’ on Netflix is kids’ play compared to real-life Sri Lankan politics. Sirisena would have made Brutus appear a saint. 

Allies and alliances

Premadasa, having supported leaders like Wickremesinghe, Fonseka, and Sirisena over the years, now finds himself in the hot seat, dealing with consolidating his power and returning for the 2024 Presidential Election. 

It’s common political knowledge that Wickremesinghe’s men and women are stationed with Premadasa. Over the last few months, four of them publicly defected to Wickremesinghe. How many more will jump ship and who is who continues to be an intriguing power play.

Premadasa’s biggest ally now is Professor G.L. Peiris, a remarkable law professor. No one casts doubt on Professor Peiris’s teaching ability, but in politics he’s a below-par achiever. Now with Premadasa, previously he served CBK and Wickremesinghe, worked very closely with Rajapaksa, and entered into an electoral alliance with Sirisena. 

The Professor played a second fiddle to Dullas Alahapperuma, who is in radio silence mode now. Rajapaksa trusted Peiris and even handed over the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP – family party) chairmanship. Is Premadasa the next victim of Peiris? Or will Premadasa outmanoeuvre him this time? In nine months, you will know the answer. 

Three ‘wise men’ – Nalaka Godahewa, Charitha Herath, and Channa Jayasumana – played a significant role in the making of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. They are now in the Premadasa axis. The troika is powerful within the Premadasa camp. It will be interesting to see how Premadasa manages the old guard SJB and the new superpowers in one team. 

Channa Jayasumana has been the face of racism since 2019. It will be interesting to see how the likes of legendary Imthiaz Bakeer Markar are planning to share the same stage with the likes of Jayasumana.

Alahapperuma, supported by Premadasa, ran against Wickremesinghe in 2022 for president through a parliamentary vote. Alahapperuma has been the victim of extreme political play not once or twice but many times. He may have to borrow Roshan Mahanama’s biography title, ‘retired hurt,’ if he continues to get sidelined. 

The JVP is not immune to betrayal and since 1994 it has played a significant role in Presidential Elections. 

In 2005, it played a vital role in making Mahinda Rajapaksa the president. Before that, the JVP supported CBK. In 2010, it revolted against Rajapaksa and sided with Sarath Fonseka. In 2015, it ran an effective indirect campaign to make Sirisena the president. 

AKD had a significant role in the Yahapalana Government, especially with Wickremesinghe. They were partners against Rajapaksas. Ironically today, Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksa are together and AKD is the challenger. Many JVP leaders have left the party since their re-entry to politics in 1994. Some went of their own accord and some were forced out. The JVP had 39 seats in the CBK Government. You can count how many are remaining in the party now. 

The political landscape is further coloured by figures like Thondaman, Hakeem, Digambaran, and Bathiudeen, who have mastered the art of aligning with power. Thondaman is currently with Wickremesinghe and the other three are with Premadasa. Alliances are to be made and to be broken at any given time. There is no guarantee that what’s happening in January will last until July.

The art of possibility

Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ) was the architect of the ‘Stop Kennedy’ campaign in 1960. However, JFK knew he needed LBJ’s influence on the southern bloc, which was crucial to his victory. JFK won and LBJ became the Vice President in 1961. After JFK’s assassination, LBJ became the 36th US president. 

Bernie Sanders, the face of the progressive movement, was fighting tooth and nail in the primaries. In 2016 and 2020, he dropped out of the race and supported Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, respectively. Politics is always about the ‘art of possibility’.

The Gandhi family trusted former Premier Manmohan Singh. He was appointed to hold the family power. Premier Singh, one of those rare political leaders, kept his word. He was criticised for governing under the shadow of Sonia Gandhi, but it did not matter to him. 

On another note, late business magnate Lalith Kotelawala’s tragic tale of ambition serves as a cautionary parable of misplaced trust and aspirations. Kotelawala, after building a business empire, had the ambition of becoming president. People close to him, due to fear of reprisal, played into his fantasy. 

Many leaders want to hear what they would like to hear. But great leaders have at least one person who can tell them the truth, no matter how bitter it is. More often, leaders, after a debacle, blame the closest people for not telling the truth. The buck stops with the leader, who is not willing to listen to different perspectives before deciding. 

Kotelawala lost his empire and fame, ended up in jail, and left the world unknown. Historically, no one continues to rise in life. Good times and bad times are interwoven. Knowing when to stop is an art. 

Dhirubhai Ambani is one of my favourite South Asian entrepreneurs. A humble Gujarati, he built his Reliance empire with a seed capital of Rs. 500 in 1957. He was controversial – booked for tax irregularities, stock market manipulations, and building trade cartels. Instead of seeking public office, he managed the strings of political parties. Except for Prime Minister V.P. Singh, he managed all. He funded all sides, he was the master. He stayed away from public office, something his son Mukesh continues to do.

The American media mogul, Michael Bloomberg, took another route. A Johns Hopkins and Harvard alum and three-times Mayor of New York, he had presidential aspirations. He self-funded his campaign and reportedly spent between $ 700-900 million and decided to drop out from the race after securing only 61 delegates. Politics is way different to what you see with the naked eye.

In this complex political play, Nimal Siripala de Silva emerges as a figure with the proverbial Midas touch, maintaining his influence regardless of the ruling power. He never had a shot at the presidency or premiership (though he expected it). However, he has served CBK, the Rajapaksas, Sirisena, and Wickremesinghe since becoming a minister in 1994.

For 30 years, he has held powerful ministries. His upcoming choice for the 2024 Presidential Election could very well indicate the political wind’s direction. Will he get this wrong for the first time? If he gets it right in 2024 also, he should write a book on political calculations. Watch him! 

High-stakes game

Reflecting on one’s stance during the Presidential Elections of 1994, 1999, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2019 offers a mirror to one’s political inclinations. Where were you in these elections? Blue, green, red, or yellow? 

The intricate hop of Sri Lankan politics, especially in Presidential Elections, is a testament to the art of political survival. Leaders like Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksa have displayed a remarkable ability to adapt, manoeuvre, and sometimes reinvent themselves in shifting political landscapes. This adaptability, while often viewed cynically, is a necessary trait in the high-stakes game of Sri Lankan politics.

As we approach the 2024 Presidential Election, the political arena of Sri Lanka is set for a dramatic showdown. The alliances formed, the strategies employed, and the narratives crafted will determine the nation’s immediate future and set the tone for its political discourse in the coming decade. 

In this maelstrom of lies, deceit, and betrayal, the role of the citizen becomes ever more crucial. The electorate must approach the unfolding events with a critical eye, discerning the truth from the fabricated narratives. This period calls for thought flexibility, a resistance to the allure of baseless predictions, and an appreciation of the complex process that is Sri Lankan politics.

As we steer through the murky waters of deceit and betrayal, it is essential to remember that this is not just a tale of political intrigue but the reality of governance in Sri Lanka. The upcoming elections are not merely about choosing leaders but about understanding the deeper currents that shape our political landscape. In doing so, we must remain vigilant, informed, and engaged, for in the end, it is the collective will of the people that shapes the destiny of a nation.

As Sri Lanka braces for yet another exciting year in politics, it is crucial to remember that the dance of lies, deceit, and betrayal is an integral part of this nation’s political fabric. It is through understanding this complex interplay that we can hope to envision a future that transcends these age-old machinations and paves the way for a more transparent and accountable political culture.