With the Avurudu festive season around the corner, many families are struggling to get by as the anticipated reduction in the cost of living has yet to occur.  This, as some traders opined that they anticipate a slight price hike in many goods. Some traders we spoke to said that despite it being the Sinhala and Tamil New Year, they are anticipating higher prices of essentials. With the prices of essential goods stagnating and accompanied by shrinking spending power post-economic crisis, most consumers will face a balancing act when celebrating the festivities amidst high food prices.

Officials at the Keppetipola Economic Centre Trade Association opined that there would be a slight increase in vegetable prices towards the festive season, noting that prices of essential vegetables such as beans, carrots, and others had seen an upward trend, while potatoes were not selling at the prices offered. They noted that there was also a shortage in certain vegetables, pointing out that the stocks in the markets finished by noon. The officials predicted that the market would experience a typical situation where prices increased during the Avurudu season, but added that there would be a decline in products entering the market. Officials at the Dambulla Dedicated Economic Centre echoed similar sentiments, pointing out that there was a significant shortage of vegetables in the lead-up to the New Year, which would encourage a tendency towards higher prices. According to one official at the centre, the price of brinjals was notably higher, standing at Rs. 500 per kilogram, as were prices of carrots and leeks. “The shortage of vegetables will not subside as Avurudu nears since there needs to be sufficient supply for this to happen. Therefore, prices will rise somewhat,” he said, attributing this shortage to the recent rains, in addition to the lack of a proper agricultural policy to guide the sector.

According to the data available at the Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research and Training Institute retail prices of most of the vegetable varieties have decreased in line with the downward wholesale trend. In up-country vegetables, the highest price decrease was reported for beans at Rs. 35/kg, followed by carrots at Rs. 29/kg. However, compared to the same period last year, prices of most of the varieties have increased, while a notable price increment was reported for beans at 89%. It must be noted that coconuts, compared to the same period last year, prices of large nuts (77%) and small nuts (92%) have increased. The prices of both egg varieties have decreased in the range of 37-38%, while other meat types except broiler and curry chicken have increased, and the highest price increase was recorded for pork by 16%.

Earlier this month, following a meeting of the Food Policy and Security Committee has recommended the importation of rice in the near future to ensure an uninterrupted supply for consumers, noting that a notable increase in rice prices had been observed in the market, along with reports of shortages in certain rice varieties, despite the current harvest season, it is learnt. According to reports, the meeting had revealed that due to excessive rainfall this year, crop damage occurred on two occasions, leading to a significant reduction in the expected harvest. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) reported that headline inflation, as measured by the Year-on-Year (YoY) change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index, remained in the negative territory for the seventh consecutive month, yet recorded a slower deflation of 2.6% in March compared to the deflation of 4.2% recorded in February. The food category recorded an inflation (YoY) of 0.6% in March compared to the deflation of 0.2% recorded in February. Nevertheless, the Department of Agriculture Socio-Economics and Planning Centre (SEPC) told The Sunday Morning that it did not appear as if there would be any shortages during Avurudu, although there could be minor issues after the festive season, which could be balanced through imports as decided by the Food Policy and Security Committee.

As such, the average family will continue to struggle through this festive season. Let us hope that their resolve to survive will be rewarded with some relief soon. Perhaps, that will be the festive wish on the minds of most families this year.