Yesterday (31 July) the Palestinian terrorist outfit ‘Hamas’ acknowledged that its political leader Ismail Haniyeh has been killed in an overnight strike in the Iranian capital Tehran. The attack, once again pushed the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region towards the brink of war. Fingers have been pointed at Israel as actors who carried out the deed. Going by the nature of the conflict between the state and non-state actors in MENA, the use of proxy forces, and power struggles by regional and international powers, any escalation to an ongoing Israel–Hamas/Hezbollah war, triggered by this assassination would make the situation more unpredictable and dangerous.
It was also a bad omen for the new Iranian President who was taking office, to have such an attack on home soil on that very day. It was only the day before that the new Iranian President had, while criticising Israel, stated that he would pursue "the needs of peace and security in the region and the world." Now, such prospects seem distant. Iran has vowed to avenge the killing of Hamas’s political leader, according to Iranian media. Hamas and Iran blame Israel for the assassination, while Israel hasn’t commented. However, Israel has previously swore to eradicate Hamas's leaders. Haniyeh was 62 years old, and is the most senior leader to be killed since the 7 October 2023 attacks, when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, killing thousands and taking hostages. The Israeli response and subsequent military operation, has been labelled by many as ruthless, disproportionate and as a crime against humanity.
The impact of a possible retaliation for such a loss by Hamas and others, could well impact outside the region. There is little doubt and many regional and international powers will be taking precautionary steps and trying to contain the fall out, or prevent a serious retaliation, aimed at containing the situation. Let us hope that a retaliation, when it comes, will not include an escalation of the Red Sea crisis, as it can have a serious impact on shipping and the local markets in Sri Lanka. There is also a sizable population of Sri Lankan migrant workers in the MEAN region. As such, any escalation of the conflict will likely have an impact on them.
Haniyeh’s death is, both strategically and symbolically, a blow to Hamas. The assassination of its most public figure who headed up the group’s political operations, who was viewed by some observers as a moderate, while in the Iranian capital, will have a significant impact both for Hamas and Iran. Haniyeh’s death marks the second leader of an Iran-backed group reported to have been assassinated in the last few days. Hezbollah’s most senior military commander was reportedly killed in Lebanon recently. The attack on Haniyeh in Tehran is not only viewed as a direct retaliation by Israel against Iran, at a time when a reformist President had recently taken oath of Presidency but this could potentially scuttle any efforts undertaken by President Masoud Pezeshkian for a potential engagement with the West, denying him the very chance of modulating Iranian Foreign Policy, geopolitical and security expert Anant Mishra said. “Haniyeh was not only the intermediary, but the face of Hamas, the people of Gaza, reflecting messages to Lebanon, Syria, the Middle East, and the rest of the world on death and destruction in Gaza, opening doors for possible negotiations with international organisations. Before his assassination, Washington was quite optimistic, with one State Department official confirming reaching a potential deal very soon, which may not see the light of the day now," Mishra told the international press. Experts point to the assassination may harden Hamas' momentum in the conflict and make them more resolute to strike Israel. Haniyeh’s death may also impact the exchange of hostages, and the prospects of a ceasefire.
The spark which killed Haniyeh, may well trigger a fire that cannot be contained within the MENA region, all efforts must be taken to de-escalate the situation, and resume dialog to prevent the crisis deepening.