• No relief expected for consumers
• Projected revenue of Rs. 229.7 b for 1H 2025
• Projected expenditure is Rs. 268.7 b
• Energy cost is Rs. 173.7 b

The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) is set to review a proposal submitted by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) for the first electricity tariff revision of 2025. 

The submission, made in response to the PUCSL’s letter dated 18 October, outlines the CEB’s suggested adjustments to electricity rates for the first half of 2025, alongside details of the Bulk Supply Tariff (BST). 

Following this, the PUCSL will initiate a review process before submitting the proposal to the commission for further scrutiny and approval.

Speaking to The Sunday Morning, PUCSL Director General Damitha Kumarasinghe said the proposal would be reviewed this week and the commission would then decide on future steps. 

“Usually, the established process will be followed,” he said. 

“We received the tariff proposal on Friday night and therefore the officials did not have time to go through it. The commission will review the proposal submitted and it will take a few days.”

However, as per the letter submitted by the CEB, the board has proposed to maintain the prevailing electricity tariff structure for the first half of 2025, meaning that there will be no tariff relief for consumers during this period.

This proposal, which has been submitted to the PUCSL for review, comes despite a carryover surplus from 2024.

With reference to the PUCSL letter No. PUC/E/Tariff/01 dated 18 October regarding the subject of the first electricity tariff revision for 2025, the CEB has submitted the tariff revision proposal for the first half of 2025 as Annex I.

The BST details have been attached as Annex II. 

As per the letter submitted by the CEB, the energy generation forecast for the first half of 2025 has been estimated based on the actual generation data from 2024 and projected growth rates. 

The total net generation for this period has been estimated at 8,636.7 GWh, with monthly forecasts ranging from 1,320.9 GWh in February to 1,518.3 GWh in March. 

A dispatch plan has been developed, incorporating updated hydro storage levels, enhanced by recent inflows from deep depressions and cyclonic activity. 

The plan has also taken into consideration the Meteorology Department’s weather forecast for December 2024 to February 2025.

Improved hydro storage has been allowed for greater allocation of hydro generation during the early dry period while maintaining reservoir reserves for the next monsoon. 

Maintenance schedules for power plants have been coordinated accordingly, including a 30-day outage for Unit 3 of the Lakvijaya Power Plant in June 2025 and an eight-week major inspection for the Kelanitissa Combined Cycle Power Station (KCCP2) starting mid-April. 

Furthermore, the Sobadhanavi Independent Power Producer (IPP) Thermal Plant is set to commence commercial operation in combined cycle mode from April 2025. 

The energy mix for the first half of 2025 is expected to include 2,216.9 GWh from hydro sources, 4,745 GWh from thermal sources, and 1,674.7 GWh from renewables, with anticipated hydro inflows estimated at 1,786.1 GWh.

As per the letter, sales forecasts for this period, derived from the net generation and adjusted for transmission and distribution losses, estimate total sales at 7,937.1 GWh. Of this, 851.3 GWh has been allocated to Lanka Electricity Company (LECO), based on sales from the 33 kV boundary. 

The customer base is expected to grow incrementally, with corresponding increases in sales figures across the months from January to June. 

Revenue forecasts, considering the transfer price of bulk sales to LECO at 26.14 LKR/kWh, estimate total revenue for the first half of 2025 to be Rs. 229.7 billion under the existing tariff structure.

Expenditure projections incorporate the pricing terms outlined in existing Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and updated fuel prices and exchange rates as of December. 

Energy costs for CEB hydro and wind generation are considered zero, while costs for IPP and Small Power Producer (SPP) generation are recovered through respective PPAs. 

Updates include prices for auto diesel at Rs. 275 per litre, furnace oil at Rs. 179 per litre, naphtha at Rs. 146 per litre, and coal at Rs. 47.57 per kilo, with an exchange rate of Rs. 294.97 per USD. 

Distribution costs have been calculated based on indexed updates to the 2024 approved figures, with adjustments for finance costs, which are forecasted at Rs. 7,728 million for the period based on an Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPLR) of 9.3%, according to the letter.

It is also stated that the total expenditure for the first half of 2025 is estimated at Rs. 268.7 billion, comprising generation energy costs of Rs. 173.7 billion, capacity costs of Rs. 31.4 billion, transmission allowed revenue of Rs. 12.2 billion, finance costs of Rs. 7.7 billion, and distribution costs totalling Rs. 43.7 billion. 

With forecast revenue at Rs. 229.7 billion and a carryover surplus of Rs. 2.3 billion from 2024, a nominal tariff reduction of 1.02% has been deemed feasible. 

However, due to uncertainties in hydro generation predictions and to ensure financial and operational stability, the CEB has proposed to maintain the current tariff structure for the first six months of 2025.

As confirmed by CEB Spokesman Eng. Dhanushka Parakramasinghe, the CEB reported a total hydro storage capacity of over 1,080 GWh as of last week. Additionally, the hydropower reservoirs benefitted from heavy rains during the adverse weather conditions that affected the entire country last week.

On Friday (6), the daily energy generation data of the CEB showed a total generation of 48.20 GWh across various sources. 

The Laxapana Hydro Complex contributed 6.69 GWh, accounting for 13.88% of the total generation, while the Mahaweli Hydro Complex generated 16.90 GWh, or 35.06%. The Samanala Hydro Complex provided 3.39 GWh, contributing 7.04%. 

The CEB’s thermal coal plants generated 8.94 GWh, making up 18.55%, and CEB thermal oil produced 0.60 GWh, or 1.24%. IPPs using thermal oil added 1.66 GWh, or 3.44%. 

Wind energy from the CEB and SPPs contributed 0.42 GWh (0.87%) and 0.52 GWh (1.08%), respectively. 

Solar energy from SPP Solar 1 generated 3.37 GWh, making up 6.99%, and biomass and mini hydro plants contributed 0.56 GWh (1.16%) and 5.15 GWh (10.69%), respectively.

In terms of the night peak data at 6.30 p.m. on the same day, the total active power generated across the various complexes was 2,559.9 MW, with 492.7 MVAR of reactive power.

The Mahaweli Hydro Complex produced the largest share of active power, with 784.8 MW, followed by the Laxapana Hydro Complex, which generated 364.6 MW. 

The CEB’s thermal coal plants contributed 467.9 MW and IPP thermal oil plants produced 278.5 MW. 

Smaller contributions came from other sources, such as SPP wind (15.7 MW), SPP mini hydro (179.7 MW), and SPP biomass (15.4 MW), while the CEB small hydro produced 2.6 MW.