• Scientist, conservationist and public policy advocate Rohan Pethiyagoda on Sri Lanka reaping the harvest post-Avurudu

The Sinhala and Tamil New Year last year (2022) was shrouded in clouds, the people’s protests or aragalaya (the public movement to overthrow the then Government under former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa) were just kicking off, gaining much traction just a few weeks later. Rajapaksa seemed to be scrambling to do the “right thing” though failing miserably, until forced to leave the country on the heels of several months of protests, military involvement, and activist-based action. Avurudu 2022 saw a full-fledged public uprising against the Government, which led to a global attention grabbing sequence of events. With the advent of the appointment of Ranil Wickremesinghe as the President, governance was done differently and not to the liking of many. One year after April 2022, Sri Lanka gained a new President, bagged the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan, has inflation decreasing, and sees the economy stabilising.

On Kaleidoscope’s regular fortnightly segment of The Pethiyagoda Pages, scientist, conservationist and public policy advocate Rohan Pethiyagoda reflects on whether Sri Lanka will be able to reap the harvest it has sown thus far.

Following are excerpts of the interview:

Are we looking at plentiful times ahead this New Year?

A: Plentiful might be pitching it too strong, because, one year ago, the country was in chaos, what with shortages, the rupee in freefall, and endless queues. People were in a panic, but now, that’s a distant memory. So, while things are a lot better now, whether it is sustainable in the longer term, the five-year term to be exact, is open to question. However, now there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel.

Are the tides turning for President Wickremesinghe? It seems that the naysayers are now marching to a different drum.

A: I was a prime naysayer just three or four months ago. I was no fan of Wickremesinghe; I was dismayed by his suppression of the aragalaya and the dishing out of portfolios to some useless Ministers. However, giving the devil his due, the President has restored order at the risk of an uprising and revolution. Remember, Sri Lanka was very unstable at the time. As I look back 20 years ago, it’s a very different Wickremesinghe we see now. If only he had had this much backbone on 6 April 2004, when Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga dismissed him as the Prime Minister and he took that dismissal lying down. However, there is some cause for hope as well as trepidation. People are now praising him in ever greater numbers for restoring stability, because he put public order ahead of individual rights, which is something we never thought would happen in Sri Lanka. This seems to have worked. About five months ago, the people were complaining bitterly, myself included, about the arrests of protesters and scuttled elections. But, no one seems to care anymore. Even the unions seem to be getting little public traction at the moment.

What would the President have to do to see himself elected next time when we have a Presidential election in 2024?

A: Given Wickremesinghe’s behaviour, I suspect that a Presidential election might come sooner than we think. Now that he has restored stability, he is now “handing out sweets”, including the fact that we are seeing lower prices and price stability, a strengthening rupee, decreasing inflation, tourism arrivals breaking records, declining interest rates, and a stabilising economy.

All this seems to be gearing towards an early Presidential bid sooner than the September 2024 date.

In the Sri Lankan context of having a short memory, 2024 is a long way away. What could mess up the status quo?

A: Sceptics like myself were expecting a mass revolt, but it never happened. People have lost interest in rebellion and that kind of public action is now no longer on the cards, unless there is a real event that changes the trajectory of the country. I think that the President’s challenge right now is to gather a coalition that can deliver him an election victory; he can’t fight on his own. Everyone recognises that the Presidential election has to be a two-way fight. A three-way fight is inconceivable and we know that one of the fighters will be the leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna and the National People’s Power and Opposition Parliamentarian Anura Kumara Dissanayake. With Wickremesinghe becoming more of a credible second candidate, his challenge is to get sufficient support from the main Parliamentary Opposition, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya and the governing and ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Permuna (SLPP) MPs (an unlikely coalition) to fight this election for him because he can’t do it on his own. On the other hand, SLPP Government MP, Mahinda Rajapaksa has groomed his son, SLPP Government MP, Namal Rajapaksa to be the President from day one, but the family’s reputation is shaky and they may pinch their noses and, as they did last July, let Wickremesinghe be elected. However, nothing is certain in politics.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) Governor,Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe says that there is no second chance for Sri Lanka. What are your thoughts?

A: There’s always a second chance for everyone, but I hope that the Governor is right. I worry about how the Government will service domestic debt without printing money. We need to remember that the Government has been borrowing outrageously from the domestic market. This has to be repaid, cancelled, or printed. There are no other choices. When the time comes for repayment two years from now, we may find ourselves taking new loans to pay off old loans. We then return to the same problem. We must also begin servicing our external debt from 2025 onwards, needing $ 5 billion annually. This means that Government spending must be cut and US dollars need to be purchased. Despite popular theory, the rupee will not strengthen to Rs. 250 against the US dollar. The rupee will continue to be weak because the demand for US dollars to service foreign debt will emerge in the next two years. I think that the Governor fears another default in 2025 or 2026 if we are not careful in the interim period. We can’t go down the slippery slope that Argentina did, defaulting on its international sovereign debt nine times.

Can we turn crisis into opportunity?

A: We definitely can and it’s already in the fray with the reforms. I just hope that Wickremesinghe doesn’t lose his nerve. This is the worry that I have, given that he is a bit like a weather vane. Privatising State owned enterprises (SOEs) is the priority now, but, as we go forward, there are numerous other reforms that need to be implemented, including making the CBSL independent of political interference, a task that is much more difficult to achieve because the SLPP, for instance, hates the idea of letting go of State control of anything. They want their fingers on power. I just hope that the President stays the course and gets it done.

What are your thoughts then, on the restructuring of SOEs and on selling off some of them, even the profit making ones?

A: I am all for that, because, I think that prioritising the easy ones like Sri Lanka Telecom and Lanka Hospitals makes sense. Those are easy to sell off to either foreign investors or local ones. They are manageable and ready to be listed even now. The President is also being really clever by appointing a competent person to head this process from outside of the Government sector, namely Suresh Shah, who has a stellar record in commerce and business management in Sri Lanka. He seems to be doing a really well paced, carefully thought out job with the privatisation process. The first phase of privatisation will be relatively quick and easy and will probably happen this year (2023). The difficult part, like getting rid of the SriLankan Airlines is going to be much more complicated and will take much longer. However, even though it’s painful and most politicians won’t like it, it has to be done. So, the sooner the President gets this done and dusted, the better off the whole country will be.

What do you see happening in the country in the two or three months after Avurudu?

A: I am seeing increasing stability and I hope that the trajectory continues. People seem to have accepted the reality with incredible maturity even though there are groups complaining about taxation or just protesting for the sake of protesting. But, this is not a big deal. The real problem going forward is in maintaining social order. That is what Wickremesinghe seems to be focusing on at the expense of individual rights in some cases, which is the worry because it can be used to excess. This is the balance that the society is going to have to make for itself.

(The writer is the Host, Director, and Co-Producer of the weekly digital programme ‘Kaleidoscope with Savithri Rodrigo’, which can be viewed on YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn. She has over three decades of experience in print, electronic, and social media.)