The United States (US) has completed what could only be termed a Presidential Election for the ages, with Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump emerging triumphant and creating history in the process. Trump, who until election day was projected as running neck and neck with Kamala Harris, ultimately won by a formidable margin and became the first US President in over a century to make a comeback and win a second term. For us Sri Lankans, this particular Trump win appears to be a replay of our own Presidential Election in September, which too created history for more reasons than one.
Trump was portrayed by the media in general and pollsters in particular as trailing Democratic Party nominee and current Vice President Harris by a gap as narrow as a single percentage point right up to election day. It was almost an identical scenario in Sri Lanka, with media and local pollsters giving Sajith Premadasa a slight edge – only to be surprised by the results that followed. In fact, just as Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) swept the board from the word go, building an unassailable lead over Premadasa as counting progressed, so did Trump, replicating the Sri Lankan election playbook, leaving both high-profile media as well as pollsters biting the dust on their projections.
Whether these skewed predictions were a result of faulty intel or deliberate manipulation to mislead both the electorate as well as candidates one will never know, but it certainly points to an emerging pattern where even opinion polls appear to be turning into potent tools of battle. The way-off-the-mark opinion polls raised eyebrows not only in Colombo two months ago but also in Washington, D.C. last week owing to the significant margin of victory. In the Lankan context, most polls predicted a photo finish between Dissanayake and Premadasa and Dissanayake ultimately notching up a significant 10% lead took everyone by surprise. It was by a similar margin that Trump trounced Harris, making the comparisons that much more interesting.
With the rapid advancement of technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) in particular, one cannot be faulted for expecting more realistic projections when it comes to elections and voter sentiment, but these two polls that took place on either side of the planet within a short period of each other have shown that voter mindsets are not that easy to read and that technology is still lagging on that score.
Be that as it may, Trump’s decisive victory has already shaken up the world’s political capitals, from Moscow to Kiev to Tel Aviv to NATO. Trump’s ascendency to the White House in a little over two months from now will have profound implications for the rest of the world as it awaits his Midas touch in resolving two deadly wars in his first 24 hours in office, which he repeatedly promised to do during campaigning.
Trump’s maverick and unconventional approach to troubleshooting, often characterised by his relationships with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Il, is both admired and admonished by friends and foes alike. This brand of hit-or-miss diplomacy however is unlikely to work in Ukraine and Gaza for the simple reason that both conflicts have progressed beyond the point of no return.
Having set a near impossible target to achieve in the first 24 hours in office, the odds are that Trump will embark on his second term with a broken promise, which brings us back to our own backyard, where Dissanayake too made similar promises on what he would accomplish in the first 24 hours in office. Even though that day is now long gone, the promises remain unfulfilled.
There are many more similarities between the outcomes of the two elections – one in a superpower nation and the other in a small, bankrupt island nation – that certainly merit closer inspection. One such is that electors in both nations opted for the anti-establishment candidate – the one who promised to challenge convention and shake up the system. Not just that, voters in both nations were willing to forgive and forget an undesirable past that both men carried as part of their political baggage, in favour of a better tomorrow.
While Trump becomes the first convicted felon to become President of arguably the world’s most powerful nation, voters in Sri Lanka were willing to forgive and forget the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna’s equally dubious past, in favour of a better future. In both nations, the common denominator that seems to have influenced the election outcome appears to be voter frustration with the establishment and the desire for a fresh start.
Another aspect that appears to be common to voters in both nations is their apparent impatience over fixing the economy. It is no secret that be it in America or Sri Lanka or any other nation for that matter, people have been pushed to the wall by global inflationary pressure, where incomes don’t match expenditure, resulting in a notable deterioration in the quality of life.
While Ranil Wickremesinghe portrayed himself as Sri Lanka’s economic saviour, even anchoring his campaign on that premise, and was confident of bagging the presidency on that score, voters had other ideas given that the fruits of his economic programme could be harvested only in 2048. In America, while the economy under US President Joe Biden appears to be in relatively good shape considering the global economic environment, his administration too appears to have focused too much on the long-term.
In fact, Biden in his first official comments following the comprehensive defeat of his nominee, Harris, acknowledged this fact, emphasising that the benefits of his economic programme would accrue to the nation only in 10 years’ time. It is apparent from the election outcomes in both nations that voters are not interested in long-term plans and want instant results.
This is where both AKD and Trump have their work cut out to speedily deliver on the economic front, for failure is not an option for both given the high stakes involved. While Trump has the advantage of not having to worry about another election for four years, AKD has to engage in a balancing act with a General Election due this week, followed by Local Government Elections within the next three months. Having already failed to secure a majority at the Presidential Election, a poor showing at any one of these elections will, by default, result in serious credibility issues for the administration as it engages with external actors on the economic front.
On this score, Dissanayake may well find himself caught in a catch-22 situation sooner than later, with voters eagerly awaiting the economic relief promised on the one hand and the granting of such relief being contingent on amending the IMF agreement. However, according to reports, the Dissanayake administration has already given a firm undertaking to the IMF that it does not intend to amend the existing agreement entered into by the previous Wickremesinghe administration. What that essentially means is that the administration will have to quickly find alternate means to fund the promised relief or run the risk of not delivering on that score. If the latter were to be the case, the leadership will have to come up with a more plausible explanation than ‘we made a mistake’.
Finally, a key fallout of a Trump presidency that has got the world’s attention is the impact of his climate policy. Sri Lanka, which has already been facing extreme weather events as a result of global warming, has no choice but to stand against Trump’s avowed policy that climate change is a hoax. Whether Sri Lanka’s current leadership has the expertise, experience, and wherewithal to take up the fight to protect the nation’s interests without ruffling too many feathers will be interesting to see and something voters will have to keep in mind when they head to the polls this week.