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Breaking the cycle

31 Jul 2022

From the people’s perspective, Ranil Wickremesinghe has long been perceived as the other side of the Rajapaksa coin and his performance to date since attaining the highest office has only contributed to strengthening that perception. Hence, as far as the people are concerned, they only seem to be getting more of the same they fought to put an end to.  Being well aware of this, the gambit now appears to be to subdue opposition to the regime through blatant intimidation, bringing back memories of the ’88/’89 period when Wickremesinghe happened to be a cabinet minister. The question is whether those antiquated, old-school tactics will have the same effect on today’s youth who have an entirely different worldview and were the driving force of the non-violent protest movement. By resorting to outdated tactics on an enlightened and sophisticated generation who have not only been the torch bearers of change but who have also anchored their struggle on non-violence, the administration appears to be completely out of touch with reality, and the likely result of its hawkish approach will be the advent of a stronger, more complex people’s struggle.  A more repressive leadership as opposed to the one it replaced is the last thing the people wanted and it will be just a matter of time before the growing displeasure manifests in a myriad of forms. It also begs the question as to why a politician of Wickremesinghe’s ilk – counting more than four decades of parliamentary experience and having presided over wars and insurrections – is reading the situation so wrong. For its part, the collective Opposition – which has ‘missed the bus’ on multiple occasions in the recent past – must at least now make the right moves if it is to stay relevant in the current context. Rightly or wrongly, just as Wickremesinghe seized the opportunities that came his way, so must the Opposition if it is to make an impact on the future course of events on the one hand and cement its status as the viable alternative on the other. In order to do that, the main Opposition must be prepared to step out of its comfort zone and mobilise the masses against the repression that is taking place. If the main Opposition does not have the stomach to take the fight to an administration that is lacking a mandate, then it is surely digging its own grave. It must be remembered that the question of a mandate and legitimacy not only applies to those in power, but equally so to the Opposition as well. If both are oblivious to the responsibilities demanded of their office, then the masses will have no other option but to fill the void, which they almost did on 9 May as well as 9 July. Being a democrat in outlook, Wickremesinghe must surely realise that no democracy can survive for too long with a government lacking a mandate. In such a scenario, if an installed leadership is hellbent on riding roughshod over the will of the people, then the consequences of such action cannot be anything but dire. Wickremesinghe speaking of the unconstitutionality of some of the protester’s actions is like the Devil quoting scripture. Being one of the key proponents of the 19th Amendment that stripped the presidency from holding ministerial portfolios, he today holds a countless number of portfolios – from Defence and Finance to Investment Promotion, Technology, Shipping, Women’s Affairs, etc. – thanks to the 20th Amendment, which he opposed at the time.  The way things are going, with protesters being singled out and hounded day in and out, it is just a matter of time before people line up in solidarity with them for nothing more than a show of displeasure on the administration getting its priorities mixed up. It appears that foreign stakeholders are more alive to this reality, and this could very well be the reason keeping them from actively engaging with the administration.  While an early election appears to be the best and only way out of the current political imbroglio, the actions of the Government so far indicate the contrary. It is rumoured that one of the conditions laid down by the 134 MPs who supported Wickremesinghe to secure the presidency was an assurance that Parliament would not be dissolved prematurely. The events that are unfolding give credence to that line of thought. Given the mixed signals emanating from the administration, the donor community has been placed in a rather awkward position. At a time when the administration should be doing all it can to put the economy back on track as its top priority, its pursuit of hounding the protesters instead has lost it many friends on the international front. Already many of the international heavyweights have issued statements in condemnation of the path taken by the administration. Last week the US Ambassador as well as the British High Commissioner both called on the President to personally convey their concerns on the evolving situation.  The top priority of this interim administration, if it has its ear to the ground, should be the prosecution of those responsible for this unprecedented economic catastrophe and the recovery of stolen assets. For the record, the Central Bank scammers are still roaming free, the Easter Sunday attack masterminds are free as well, those who incited the 9 May attack on ‘GotaGoGama’ are free, and those who drove this country to bankruptcy are also free. Not just that, over 40 cases pertaining to those accused of corruption during the previous Rajapaksa regime have been either withdrawn or dismissed based on grounds of ‘technical errors’. All this notwithstanding, the Government appears to be hell bent on persecuting those accused of damaging State property during the protests. However, it has not shown similar enthusiasm in prosecuting MPs caught on camera destroying public property in Parliament itself not many moons ago.  It is this blatant duplicity and inequality in the application of the law that initially mobilised the masses on to the streets asking for a better deal. When in fact the administration should be focusing on fast-tracking legal proceedings with a view to recovering stolen assets already highlighted in the public domain like the Pandora Papers, sugar scam, etc., its deafening silence on that front reinforces the belief that what we have upon us is the flip side of the same coin. It is this and for no other reason that the Aragalaya will likely resurface in a far more sophisticated and powerful form in the not-too-distant future to finish what is clearly unfinished business. With such a prospect very much on the horizon, it is becoming apparent that desperate attempts are being made to change the narrative to one that the protests are making the country bankrupt when in fact it is the other way around – people got on to the streets in their millions in sheer frustration against a leadership that drove this country to bankruptcy. The original Aragalaya was not just about sending the former President home; it was one aspect of a much larger canvas to achieve a complete system change to prevent the country from becoming bankrupt ever again. What the leaders, political parties, and the people themselves must realise is that IMF funding, if and when it comes, will not be the ‘be all and end all’ of the story. It will only offer some breathing space by providing bridging finance which will go towards procuring essential commodities. Debt servicing, along with the arrears that have been piled up since April, will have to be renegotiated and eventually settled by the people of this country. No one else will step in to settle this mountain of debt unless, of course, they are written off by the lender. So the road ahead, even with the IMF on board, is likely to be anything but comfortable in the foreseeable future. Given that the same set of ministers have been in office since Wickremesinghe took office as PM in May, one is inclined to question as to what exactly is the status of the economic revival plan that will ensure essential commodities, including fuel, for the next six months at least. It is however encouraging that the President’s Office issued a statement on Friday claiming that negotiations with the IMF have been “highly successful”. Interestingly, no such enthusiasm has been forthcoming from the IMF itself, with its most recent statement calling on the Government to begin debt restructuring discussions with China. Meanwhile, the World Bank has been more blunt, announcing that it has no intention to offer any new funding until a proper macro-economic plan is in place.  It is this plan that should have been on the table by now with Wickremesinghe completing 75 days at the helm of Government, having taken over as Prime Minister on 13 May. Instead, the Government’s priority appears to be hounding the very same protesters who paved the way for Wickremesinghe to land the top job. While parliamentarians are being provided with unprecedented security, the public has not been so lucky, with a palpable deterioration in law and order. Shades of ’88/’89 seem to be reappearing, with unidentified bodies washing up on the shores of Colombo and a spate of shootings that have so far resulted in at least 12 deaths. Meanwhile, there seems to be no end to the games being played in order to save those individuals identified as being responsible for the economic mayhem. It now appears that prorogation of Parliament will provide a respite to these officials who have already been summoned to appear before COPE in the week ahead. With the prorogation, COPE and other parliamentary oversight committees stand dissolved. It will therefore be interesting to see whether the same members will be reappointed, including the former Chairman, who has been instrumental in making COPE one of the few parliamentary oversight committees actually doing what is expected of it. Be that as it may, by recycling the same politicians who created this problem – Ranil Wickremesinghe and Mahinda Rajapaksa have alternatively headed governments from 2001 to 2021 with a combined parliamentary experience of 95 years between them – and then alternatively expecting the same people to solve them, has only driven this nation deeper into the abyss. What the people are demanding is an end to this cycle. To think that Ceylon was the second richest nation in the whole of Asia in 1948 and today it is bankrupt to the extent that it cannot afford to pay for a shipment of fuel essentially tells the story of how badly our politicians have let us down.  Just 50 years ago, the time when Mahinda Rajapaksa entered Parliament as an MP, Dubai was a barren desert. Today it is a thriving metropolis second to none. In those same 50 years what have our politicians given us other than running a once-prosperous country into the ground? The real Aragalaya was – and is – all about changing this degenerative cycle of mediocre politics.


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