• A climate and ocean risk assessment in WP reveals vulnerability to rising temperatures and coastal flooding due to population growth and urbanisation

BY Sumudu Chamara   Although the economic crisis has attracted the highest attention of the people, the Government, and the authorities, a number of social, cultural, and environmental issues that Sri Lanka is facing and which were developing even before the economic crisis broke out continue to affect the country. While the economic crisis has made it difficult to allocate resources to deal with such issues, to make matters worse, some such issues are being worsened by economic crisis-related developments. Environmental and climate-related challenges are one such issue that cannot be overlooked under any circumstance. A recent climate risk assessment in the Western Province (WP) identified significant economic and political risks related to climate change and that the country is vulnerable to rising temperatures and coastal flooding. It also recommended urgent steps to protect coastal communities in the province. The rapid assessment – which is based on and complements the full Climate and Ocean Risk Vulnerability Index (CORVI) tool, a risk analysis tool that compares a diverse range of economic, social, and environmental risks to produce climate and ocean risk profiles for coastal cities – looks into climate and ocean risks and options to address the identified risks. It was conducted by the Government of Sri Lanka (through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs), the American think tank Stimson Centre’s Environmental Security Programme, and the Commonwealth Secretariat (through the Commonwealth Blue Charter programme). According to the Stimson Centre, the three organisations had collected data on the extent of climate and ocean risks affecting the Western Province and had surveyed dozens of local experts to determine priority climate action and steps for the country to undertake in 2022 and beyond. The assessment had been conducted over six months.   Prevailing situation and risks    Identifying the significance of the Western Province, the report noted that the assessment identified significant vulnerabilities in financial and political risk, particularly in the economics category and highlighted the recent state of affairs of the country which is currently in the midst of an economic crisis. Among other matters, it identified major changes in the population structure as posing potential risks to the Western Province and to Sri Lanka more generally. “Sri Lanka has been urbanising rapidly since the end of its civil war in 2009, and much of that population growth has occurred in the Western Province. This increase has put pressure on the built environment and natural systems, including transportation infrastructure and marine ecosystems such as wetlands and mangroves. At the same time, the Sri Lankan population is ageing, with more than 12% already aged 60 years or older, the highest in the region, with that figure projected to rise to over 25% in a decade and a half. An ageing population will put pressure on the country’s healthcare and pension systems, reducing the resources available to respond to climate risks. In addition, an ageing population will increase the challenge of responding to extreme weather events, such as flooding and extreme heat,” it explained. In addition, the assessment pointed out that the number of flood events and near-shore fish stock status are the highest ecological vulnerabilities for the Western Province, and pointed out the importance of taking into account heavy rainfall, the degradation of wetlands, and pollution in the Province. The assessment identified three key risks faced by the Western Province, namely, ecological risks, financial risks, and political risks that require attention. Using a number of indicators – i.e. the number of flood events, the change in the sea surface temperature, and the number of people affected by extreme weather events under the climate category, the incidence of highly invasive species abundance, the rate of occurrence of harmful algal blooms, and the health of existing mangroves under the ecosystems category, the near-shore fish stock status, the capacity of fisheries enforcement institutions, the offshore fish stock status under the fisheries category, the rate of coastal erosion, the area at risk of flooding, and the degree of saltwater instruction in the coastal aquifer under the geology/water category – the assessment showed that out of the 12 indicators, 10 were rated as medium-high risk. It explained: “In the climate category, the number of flood events is the second-highest risk indicator in ecological risk, reflecting the heavy flooding the area often experiences. The change in the sea surface temperature is also rated as medium-high risk while the number of people affected by extreme weather events is scored as medium risk. “All three of the selected indicators in the ecosystems category are rated as medium-high risk. The two highest risk indicators in the category, the incidence of highly invasive species abundance and the rate of occurrence of harmful algal blooms reflect some of the possible secondary effects of rising terrestrial and marine temperatures. All three of the selected indicators in the fisheries category are rated as medium-high risk, including the near-shore fish stock status – the highest risk indicator in ecological risk, which reflects the area’s reliance on overexploited coastal fisheries. In the geology/water category, the rate of coastal erosion and the degree of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers show moderate but real vulnerabilities associated with rising sea levels. The area at risk of flooding, which includes coastal and runoff flooding, is also scored medium-high risk.” The assessment also looked into financial risks, which were assessed using nine indicators. They are, debt ratio (percentage of the gross domestic product [GDP]), market losses from extreme weather events, the level of the informal economy under the economics category, the level of informal or unplanned settlement, the percentage of low-income housing in relation to flood zones, the percentage of people living below five metres above the sea level under the infrastructure category, the percentage of the national economy based in the ports and shipping industries, the percentage of the national economy based in the tourism industry, and the percentage of the national economy based in agriculture under the major industries category. In this regard, the report highlighted that financial risks in the Western Province are concentrated in the economics category, which contains the three highest risk indicators in the rapid assessment. “In the economics category, the debt ratio (% of the GDP), market losses from extreme weather events, and the level of the informal economy are all rated as high risk. The vulnerabilities associated with Sri Lanka’s debt ratio have come to the forefront in the country’s ongoing economic crisis. In the infrastructure category, the level of informal or unplanned settlement is rated as medium-high risk, reflecting the challenges of accommodating the rapid urbanisation in the Western Province in recent years. The percentage of low-income housing in relation to flood zones and the percentage of people living below five metres above the sea level are both rated as medium risk. All three of the selected indicators in the major industries category are rated as medium-high risk, reflecting the large share of the national economy based in ports and shipping, tourism, and agriculture.” In addition, the assessment looked into political risks associated with the climate using several indicators – investment in climate resiliency development projects, the national climate adaptation plan, the capacity of current disaster response under the governance category, the urbanisation rate, the urban population density, the dependency ratio under the social and demographics category, the number of incidences of civil unrest or instability, the percentage of people employed in the tourism industry, and the percentage of people employed in the ports and shipping industries under the stability category. “The governance category reflects vulnerabilities around the public response to the threats posed by climate change and extreme weather events. Investment in climate resiliency development projects and the national adaptation plan are both rated as medium-high risk while the capacity for the current disaster response is rated as medium risk. The medium-high risk indicators in the social and demographics category reflect the vulnerabilities associated with changing population patterns, including those from the Western Province’s urbanisation rate and the urban population density, along with those due to the ageing reflected in the dependency ratio. The stability category includes both the medium-high risks stemming from the number of incidences of civil unrest or instability and the medium-high risks associated with the high employment in both the tourism Industry and the ports and shipping industries.”   Recommendations   The report identified a number of steps as necessary in order to address the prevailing situation and the said risks. One key recommendation put forward by the assessment is investing in climate-smart infrastructure and community-based adaptation in vulnerable neighbourhoods. “Rapid urbanisation in the Western Province has driven growth in informal and unplanned settlements. These settlements often suffer from inadequate drainage, sanitation, and waste management, and were among the worst affected during the flooding that hit Colombo in 2016 and 2017. The National Natural Disaster Insurance Scheme has worked to support the recovery of those living in informal settlements from flooding and the Metro Colombo Urban Development Project (MCUDP) has worked to reduce flood risk in Colombo, but it is essential to further mitigate these risks.” Adding that other cities facing similar risks have reduced the impact of flooding by improving drainage systems and removing debris and waste from them, replacing concrete and paved surfaces with permeable surfaces, restricting new development on wetlands and floodplains, and creating spaces that can retain rainwater, it was noted that this process may include transforming informal dump sites. In addition, the report said that bringing community-based organisations into the decision-making process can help design and implement effective flood reduction measures in informal settlements and that multi-sectoral partnerships between the Government, the private sector, and the civil society to share knowledge, expertise, and resources have been successful. It also pointed out the importance of community-based local disaster risk management committees, staffed by volunteers and supported by the Government, which it said have reduced the damage caused by flooding in other parts of the world. It also recommended building resilience in marine and coastal ecosystems. Noting that the Western Province is home to diverse marine and coastal ecosystems, especially mangroves, wetlands, and coral reefs, which provide essential ecosystem services, including flood control, water purification, carbon sequestration, and erosion regulation, the report said that a World Bank study has found that keeping Colombo safe from a major flood was impossible without preserving the city’s wetlands, even with the installation of drainage tunnels, pumping stations, and improved canal diversion. It added: “These ecosystems have been damaged by both human activity and climate change. The principal cause of the degradation of mangroves and wetlands has been habitat destruction for conversion to other uses. The main threats to coral reefs in Sri Lanka are coral mining, plastic and polythene waste pollution, rising sea temperatures, and marine heat waves according to statements made in 2019 by the Head of Sri Lanka’s Marine Environment Protection Authority (MEPA).” “The MCUDP has already made important progress in preserving Colombo’s wetlands and in 2018, the city was the first capital to be accredited as an International Wetland City by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands,” the report said, adding that the National, Provincial and Local Government Authorities could build on this progress by working with the private sector and the civil society on a multipronged approach. This approach, it was suggested, could include the better enforcement of existing regulations, such as the ban on coral mining, as well as the new regulations, including limitations on building on wetlands and mangroves. It could also include a focus on reducing urban pollution through improved waste management, particularly in the province’s informal settlements. The report pointed out that given the size of its informal economy (in the Western Province), Sri Lanka could consider learning from best practices in integrating informal and formal waste management practices to improve waste management and poverty alleviation while reducing the health impacts associated with informal waste management. These efforts could be accompanied by the enhanced monitoring of ecosystem health and greater outreach and public education on the importance of these ecosystems and the risks that they face, according to the report. Adding that another strategy for preserving marine ecosystems is debt for nature swaps, which offer the opportunity to improve ecosystem resilience and to address the country’s debt ratio, the report pointed out, noting several international examples of successful debt for nature swaps. “In 2015, the first debt for nature swap for ocean conservation was completed in the Seychelles. The Nature Conservancy bought almost $ 22 million of the country’s debt in exchange for a promise to create 13 new marine protected areas. In November 2021, the Government of Belize signed a debt for nature swap with the Nature Conservancy, the US International Development Finance Corporation, and Credit Suisse which reduced its external debt by $ 553 million. The deal included a commitment to increase Biodiversity Protection Zones from the current 15.9% of Belize’s ocean area to 30% by 2026, among other promises.” It was noted that given the time required in order to complete such an agreement – in a context where it took several years to finalise Belize’s debt for nature swap – such an option must be considered a medium to a long-term solution. The third key recommendation was to enhance the climate adaptability of key industries. The report highlighted that tourism, shipping, garment production, and agriculture industries comprise a major portion of the economy of Sri Lanka, and of the Western Province specifically, the report said that it is critical to both protect these key industries from the climate risks that they face as well as to minimize their negative environmental impacts. “Tourism is a rapidly growing sector, and the Government has identified it as one of the most important for earning foreign exchange in Sri Lanka’s updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. It is also vulnerable to climate impacts and is one of the 10 priority sectors in the National Adaptation Plan (NAP). During this period of growth and flux for the industry, it is critical that the public and private sectors work together to structure it in a way that minimises climate risk and minimises its negative environmental impact. This can include regulations around solid waste management and the clearing of marine ecosystems as well as efforts to increase the awareness of climate and environmental risks among tourism industry stakeholders, establish emergency response plans, and monitor shorelines and marine ecosystems. It is important to harmonise efforts between Local Government, Provincial Government, national Government bodies including the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority and the Ministry of Environment, and the private sector, in order to blend financial resources and to ensure that adaptations in one area do not increase the risk in another.” Pointing out the incidents of the MT New Diamond and the MV X-Press Pearl as examples, the report noted that shipping accidents remain a major source of environmental contamination and that the Government could work to enhance safety standards on vessels operating through the Colombo Port and could strengthen the capacity of the MEPA, the Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA), and the Sri Lanka Navy to respond to these types of accidents. “Sri Lanka could strengthen its collaboration with its neighbours and other countries with major shipping industries, in order to share technical knowledge and provide mutual support in the event of future disasters. Existing organisations like the World Association for Waterborne Transport Infrastructure are one option for undertaking this kind of knowledge sharing. Experts highlighted that formal information sharing mechanisms and improved capacity to respond to maritime chemical spills as priorities for improved collaboration.” The report also identified the agriculture sector as a sector that faces climate risk from increasing temperatures, drought, flooding, and invasive species. “Agriculture is a key focus area of both the NAP and the updated NDCs, both of which outline several strategies for increasing the resilience of Sri Lankan agriculture, including promoting integrated pest management, introducing crop varieties resistant to climate stressors, improving water management practices, and enhancing early warning systems. Strategies like agro-forestry and integrated systems agriculture, which combine crops, livestock, and/or forestry in a single farm can provide additional adaptation benefits. Including community-based organisations in decision-making can help improve the uptake and monitoring of climate-smart agriculture practices. Urban planning could integrate the agricultural sector to improve the consideration of risks to the agricultural sector from urban expansion. Innovative financing and insurance products, such as parametric insurance, can also be considered.” Addressing the risks identified by this latest assessment is of extreme importance for Sri Lanka, as a country that has limited resources and is going through an economic crisis. Allocating resources, building a more organised discourse around climate-related issues, and strengthening relationships between private and public stakeholders, are key steps. It will not only protect the country and the people from climate-related challenges but will also help much-needed economic revival by improving the tourism and fisheries sectors.