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Facing an impending power crisis

12 Dec 2021

By Cassendra Doole Darkness and light, a constant ongoing battle in the fantasy genre, is fast becoming a reality for those of us in Sri Lanka, as the island was plunged into darkness with an unexpected power outage on 3 December. Reports suggested that most of Sri Lanka faced over five hours of an islandwide power outage on top of persistent fears of a fuel crisis and the shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders. According to official reports, the power cut was due to the failure of a key transmission line, while “the growing resistance within the state-run Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) to the Rajapaksa administration’s decision to award an energy deal to US-based company New Fortress Energy Inc.” were heavily discussed, according to reports. Earlier this month, the CEB engineers started a work-to-rule protest against this move, resulting in the seniors of the CEB blaming the engineers for the breakdown. Reports went so far as to suggest an “act of sabotage”, especially taking into consideration all the criticisms of the Government on social media. Nevertheless, the power outage didn’t just affect the daylight hours of Sri Lankan citizens. The abrupt power outage disrupted the water supply in many areas, which also disrupted local restaurants and businesses which had to remain closed for the better part of the day. In a domino effect, the power outage affected everything from water to transportation. Ironically, the power outage shed light on yet another issue the country could be facing in the very near future – an impending power crisis. Impending power crisis? A power crisis occurs when the energy resources in an economy fail to meet the demand and there is a significant bottleneck of said energy resources. Electricity happens to be one of the key services that are necessary for the functioning of any country, especially in its development. Similarly, industries in Sri Lanka require a reliable, competitively priced, and sustainable power generation system for their growth. However, data from the past three decades show a steady increase in demand coupled with a steady decrease in supply, and Sri Lanka’s power generation sector is not living up to the expectations of the industries, services, and public needs in terms of quality, reliability, and capacity. The situation has only worsened post-pandemic. Global energy markets are facing a dire issue, as the demand for energy has increased in countries like China and other major economies as they recover from the ongoing pandemic. Europe underwent a cold winter, which depleted their gas reserves while the lack of wind reduced the wind power supply to the grids. According to The Guardian, CO2 prices have hit record levels. Energy prices are steadily increasing and for a country like Sri Lanka, with its struggling economy, it is hard to keep up. “If you look at the nature of the crisis we might face in the future, it is mainly linked to the country’s economic crisis. We have come across crises in different contexts and in a different phase in the past, but they were mostly dependent on the amount of rain we received,” said University of Colombo (UoC) Department of Economics Senior Lecturer and Attorney-at-Law Dr. Shanuka Senarath, speaking to The Sunday Morning. “In the past, we experienced power cuts mainly because we received less rain, which meant there was little ability to generate hydropower. This was nothing new. But in future, things will be different, given that we now need more power to run the country compared to the past decade and also because we’re heavily dependent on fuel and fossil power, which are imported sources as well,” he added. Current energy status in Sri Lanka According to the International Trade Administration (ITA), Sri Lanka aims to be an energy self-sufficient nation by 2030, with the objective of increasing the country’s power generation capacity from the existing 4,043 megawatts (MW) to 6,900 MW by 2025 with a significant increase in renewable energy. Currently, the country has achieved a grid connectivity of 98%, which is considered to be relatively high by South Asian standards. Electricity in Sri Lanka is generated using three primary sources – thermal power (which includes coal and fuel oil), hydropower, and other non-conventional renewable energy sources (solar power and wind power). According to CEB data, from 2018-2037, Sri Lanka plans to add 842 MW of major hydro, 215 MW of mini hydro, 1,389 MW of solar, 1,205 MW of wind, 85 MW of biomass, 425 MW of oil-based power, 1,500 MW of natural gas, and 2,700 MW of coal power into the electricity generation system. The annual total electricity demand is about 14,150 gigawatt hours (GWH). The annual demand for electricity is expected to increase by 4.9% over the next 20 years, a number constrained by high prices. However, due to the decline in the country’s economic status, unpredictable weather patterns, and other factors that should have been foreseen by experts, Sri Lanka is currently facing a crisis. Hydropower has reached capacity and the overall decline in the economy is not helping matters, according to Dr. Senarath. “In the future, we are likely to face a severe energy crisis, as we’re running out of dollars and the economic status of our country is weakening,” he said, adding: “We will be forced to limit the number of things we can import, which means we will have to reduce the amount of fuel power, fossil power, and crude oil. This will affect the country’s transportation sector and the methods that keep the country moving. “Furthermore, given the situation in the country, the fuel costs will also increase with the rate of decline in the rupee. That is simply one part of the power crisis, because power is not just electricity. It is mainly the energy that we need to keep the country going.” The promise of utopia During the beginning of the year 2021, the country’s ministers made a lot of promises. In March 2021, then Minister of Power and Energy Dullas Alahapperuma said that the Government was working on a plan to power the country using entirely renewable energy sources within the next decade.  The idea of becoming a 100% energy sufficient nation is a wonderful idea. According to Dr. Senarath, Sri Lanka is heavily dependent on sources other than hydropower, because hydropower alone is not capable of generating the power that the county requires. “For example, we have power plants that use coal, and we have power plants that use diesel to generate electricity. These power plants would be costly and less likely to operate in future, with the weakening ability of importing coal. It will be very expensive to keep them operational. “On the other hand, we still have a significant amount of hydropower in the country. We have many hydropower stations which are less linked to the economic status of the country. Those can still operate. However, the concern here is whether these hydropower stations are capable of generating the electricity and power that we require, because our needs have grown during the past five years or so. The hydropower stations alone will not be sufficient to meet all our demands. It is more likely that in future, there will be a significant power shortage in the country.” Who should be blamed? Politicians love to play the blame game. Each government will happily lay the blame for the destruction of the roots of the country at the feet of its predecessor.  According to Dr. Senarath, the blame lies with all governments, both past and present. “You can’t blame just one government. You have to take a clear look at the history of this country and consider whether any government undertook successful measures to enhance the power needs of this country. Given that we are a tropical country, we need to take a look at whether we have invested enough in solar power. We haven’t. Have we encouraged importing solar powered vehicles? Also, no. We are still dependent on conventional sources. We haven’t invested enough in any green energy power project. Otherwise, we could have used that as a solution to the impending power crisis. We are still dependent on costly solar power, and considering the declining economic status of the country, we will likely face a significant shortage in the future.” Behold the future Sri Lanka is not alone in facing an impending energy crisis. China is currently experiencing extensive power cuts, and as a result, has said it would allow coal-fired power plants to pass on the high costs of generation to some end users via market-driven electricity prices. Meanwhile, multiple UK utilities were pushed into bankruptcy, with several others warning of upcoming problems. The Financial Times reported that the UK’s sixth largest utility provider, Bulb Energy, was reported to be seeking financial assistance to avoid bankruptcy. Meanwhile, Indian authorities have warned that the country’s power plants are running hazardously low on coal. However, while many of the global economies are plunged into the very same darkness faced by Sri Lanka, each country’s options differ vastly from each other. For instance, renewable energy may be a sufficient solution to many of the global economies, but according to research done by the Institute of Engineers of Sri Lanka (IESL), renewable energy is simply not an option for Sri Lanka to meet the future power demand. “The renewable energy power plants currently installed in Sri Lanka could not be considered as an addition to the national grid. The historical data clearly show that, except for a few biomass and hydropower plants, no renewable energy power plants were able to produce power with more than 30% plant factor. This means that any renewable power plant where the generation power is less than eight hours per day is supported by the power generated through CEB power stations running either coal, diesel, or hydro power for the remaining 18 hours of the day. Even though one could argue that since renewable energy is performing very well in other parts of the world, it should be possible in Sri Lanka as well, the truth is that whole of Europe is electrically connected and the EU (European Union) has a very large thermal power-generation capacity, covering more than 70% of total energy generation,” the IESL stated. According to experts, it is not impossible to avert a future power crisis. Measures such as utilising the water in the reservoirs sparingly, ensuring an uninterrupted supply of fuel for the thermal power plants, resolving technical issues of the thermal power plants, implementing plans to optimally utilise the embedded generators, and focusing people’s attention on energy conservation methods can be adopted. However, the fact remains that this cannot be undertaken by just one person. The Government must make an honest effort to bring about a solution, instead of making empty promises and then sticking its head in the sand when everything unravels. 


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