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Getting it right on multiple fronts

12 Feb 2022

Having endured crisis upon crisis in the recent past, if one were to have the reasonable expectation of clearer skies ahead, going by what’s in store in the next couple of weeks, all indications are that the worst is yet to come. On the part of the Government – although it must surely be desperate for at least a brief respite from the continuous headaches it has had to endure, most of which unfortunately are of its own making – the likelihood of a resurgence in Covid cases, a tough battle at the 49th United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) sessions in Geneva set to commence later this month, and an imperious European Union (EU) that is currently weighing the pros and cons of continuing the GSP Plus concessions must surely be weighing heavily on its collective mind. For a cash-strapped Government, elections are usually its worst nightmare. Now it appears that its grandstanding has resulted in bringing upon itself the challenge of facing one in the not-too-distant future, with the Opposition wasting no time in pouncing upon and accepting the challenge posed by none other than the Prime Minister for a face-off at the hustings. Although a General or Presidential Election is at least two years away at the minimum, Local Government and Provincial Polls are long overdue, having been continuously postponed pending electoral reforms that seem to be making little or no headway. It is a well-known fact that Big Brother India, which has now assumed the role of Sri Lanka’s economic saviour, has been keen to see full implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, which it more or less foisted upon the nation over three decades ago. Successive governments over the years have by design and default, as the case may be, fallen short of its full implementation in light of domestic political compulsions, given the perception on the degree of autonomy afforded to the provinces, which the centre has deemed politically suicidal. Hence it has been more convenient to indulge in lip service to ‘full implementation’ that has so far sufficed in keeping Big Brother at bay. But things appear to be changing. With no one willing to come to its rescue, Big Brother has jumped at the opportunity to become Sri Lanka’s saviour by offering an unprecedented, multi-pronged economic recovery package to tide over at least the most urgent issues by providing a lifeline for importing fuel, food, and medical supplies through the provision of credit lines. Last year Sri Lanka managed to convince its other brother, China, to agree to a currency swap which helped shore up reserves by the end of December. But whatever one calls them, be it currency swaps or credit lines, these are essentially loans that need to be paid back sooner than later, simply postponing the inevitable. Be that as it may, Big Brother with its newfound muscle now finds itself in familiar territory, where it can dictate terms as it did when former President J.R. Jayewardene was more or less forced to sign on the dotted line paving the way for the 13th Amendment. Since there is nothing called a free lunch in the modern context, speculation is rife of Indian influence in a likely Provincial or Local Poll in the not-too-distant future. For a Government that is desperate for an economic lifeline and not so much an election at this particular juncture, it is a classic case of finding itself stuck between a rock and a hard place. But left with little or no choice, desperate situations call for desperate measures and all indications are that the Government is gearing up for the inevitable. As a consequence, the Finance Minister has had to dip into the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) for hard-to-come-by funds in order to get things moving in that direction. It is no secret that elections are a costly business in this country, both to conduct as well as for parties and candidates to campaign under the present Proportional Representation electoral system. If money talks under normal circumstances, it most definitely shouts during election time – and it so happens more often than not that the biggest spender ends up the winner. Consisting of retirement funds of the country’s seven to eight million private sector workers, the EPF which is managed by the Central Bank has long been considered a sacred cow and no government has dared to mess with it openly given its potential for large-scale labour upheaval. Therefore, as expected, the Government going ahead with gazetting the imposition of a 25% Super Gain Tax on the Rs. 2.45 billion profit of the Rs. 3 trillion fund has succeeded in raising a hornet’s nest. Even though it has been alleged over the years that the massive clout of the fund has been utilised in more subtle ways by those controlling the Central Bank to influence trading activity at the Colombo bourse, it has never been subjected to direct Government manoeuvring as now. That is not to say that the fund has not been taxed before; it has, routinely, in accordance with the applicable corporate taxation policy, which the contributing employees have deemed fair enough. Political analysts have pointed out that as a result of the proposed Super Gain Tax, each contributory employee will lose around Rs. 30,000, which under the current constrained economic environment is unconscionable. With that being the case, the collective Opposition has accused the Government of earmarking the EPF for funding its election campaign in the guise of carrying out 100,000 new projects at the grassroots level, which campaign was kicked off at a massive political rally in Anuradhapura last week with the participation of thousands of party supporters amid concerns of rising Covid-19 case numbers. To add fuel to the fire, the Opposition has pledged to draw an even bigger crowd to the same location next month. While the political protagonists battle it out, it is the ordinary people who will be caught in the middle as usual and be forced to pay the price if another wave of the pandemic were to strike. While the Government has no option but douse the fire it has ignited with regard to the EPF, it also has other matters to deal with – most notably the upcoming UNHRC sessions in Geneva, where once again it will find itself facing some hostile bowling given the feeble attempt to reinvent the contentious Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) in a more humane form. With the powerful human rights lobby seemingly unimpressed by the proposed cosmetic amendments, the Government will find itself in a tight spot in justifying its case given the firm assurances to the same UN body to undertake a complete overhaul one year ago. On top of that it also has to deal with increasing pressure from the European Union (EU) not only to relax import restrictions that have drastically affected trade with the powerful European bloc but also on similar concerns as the UNHRC with regard to alleviating human rights concerns it has already raised as part of the GSP Plus programme, which is now in its final stages of review for renewal. The Foreign Ministry’s public spat with a respected rights activist who made submissions before an EU Sub Committee evaluating qualifying criteria is not likely to go down well with the European body, which is more likely to frown on the conduct of the Ministry in publicly mocking the activist who in the end was only calling for the protection of the rights of every Sri Lankan, which fundamental fact the Ministry seems to have lost sight of. Instead of engaging in a self-destructive exercise of choosing to engage one of its own citizens, the Ministry could have done way better if it instead chose to address the concerns raised by the individual, which in turn would have shown it in a much more receptive light. It is this sort of short-sightedness that continues to cost the country dearly on so many fronts.  


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