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Neither here nor lockdown

16 Sep 2021

Often, when faced with an impossible choice, priority is given to mitigating losses, rather than maximising gains. However, when making such a choice, it is important to stand firm on whichever decision that has been made, or one risks losing on both sides. This is precisely the sort of situation Sri Lanka experienced last month, in the face of a worsening pandemic, being forced to choose between sacrificing the economy to implement a lockdown, or risking public health safety by allowing activity to continue. Ostensibly, the country opted to prioritise public health over the economy, implementing an islandwide lockdown since 20 August in a bid to curb the alarming rise in Covid-19 cases and deaths. But on the ground, the situation has been quite different, as on many weekdays, including yesterday (16), roads have been congested with traffic, as many people continued travelling about – a stark contrast to the deserted streets we witnessed during the first lockdown in 2020. Now, speculation is rife that on 21 September, the Government will lift the islandwide travel restrictions, as the spike in Covid-19 cases seems to be slowly subsiding, and people are hopeful of returning to their day-to-day activities. But looking back at this most recent lockdown, how it was implemented, and most importantly, how seriously we the citizens followed it, we have to wonder if we ever truly made that impossible choice, or whether we simply tried to catch two rabbits at once and came up empty handed. First of all, we need to ask ourselves, why did we opt for a lockdown? Simply, the number of cases had climbed to a point where hospitals were seeing overcrowding, patients were running out of oxygen, and almost everyone knew the name of someone or other that belonged in those dreaded Covid-19 statistics. But have the last four weeks been enough to mitigate the risk of another spike in cases? According to top health professionals, the answer is a big no. Independent health experts have appealed to the Government to extend the prevailing lockdown by another few weeks, preferably until October, while certain Health Ministry officials have also said that reopening the country without a proper plan to ensure the people’s safety would complicate the situation further. However, there is also that pressing need to ensure the health of our ailing economy. Being beset by a number of issues, it seems the country has no choice but to allow businesses to operate, or suffer dire economic consequences. But here we need to ask another question: If we had been under a proper lockdown over the past four weeks, sacrificing our need to get out for work, or to see our relatives, or in some cases, just for a breath of fresh air, wouldn’t the case numbers have come down to a sufficient level to convince health experts that the country is safe to reopen and get back to business? Let us not forget that it was businesses themselves that chose to close their shutters in fear for their lives, before the Government stepped in to declare a lockdown. Put simply, we wanted to have our cake and eat it too, and we now see the repercussions of our disregard for the restrictions – despite the country being under a lockdown for nearly a month, the country has achieved insignificant results as far as the pandemic is concerned. This slight decrease in the case load is not enough to justify a complete return to normalcy; in fact, we are at risk of seeing another sharp increase in cases within a couple of weeks if we open up the country again. Even worse, the pseudo-lockdown currently in place has only resulted in hampering businesses from properly operating, thus cutting down revenue sources for both the Government and the people, and further battering the economy. Had we properly restricted movement and brought down cases, we could genuinely hope to restart key economic sectors such as tourism and attract FDI, without the nagging fear of another wave of Covid-19. However, at the rate we are going, Sri Lanka may end up stuck in a never-ending cycle of a spike in cases, calls for a lockdown from health authorities, insistence by the Government that the economy can’t survive another lockdown, further and louder calls for a lockdown from the health authorities and the political opposition, and eventually the Government wilting under the pressure and imposing a nominal lockdown with plenty of movement. Essentially, by imposing these neither here nor there lockdowns, investors and tourists around the world would see that Sri Lanka is officially closed and be deterred by that, while people in Sri Lanka roam about freely and spread the virus, defeating the purpose of the lockdown. The only way to break this cycle is for the authorities to implement definitive measures, and for the people to take the situation seriously, otherwise being faced with an impossible choice will become a regular occurrence.  


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