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Strategic diplomacy, geopolitical rivalry, historical relations, and the deep blue ocean
To inquire about the Government’s stance on this matter, The Morning spoke to Foreign Affairs Ministry Secretary Admiral Prof. Jayanath Colombage, who said that as a country, Sri Lanka first needs to embrace the idea that foreign-funded or backed development projects belong to Sri Lanka, and that that is how matters pertaining to projects like the Port City project must be discussed.
He explained: “There is a fundamental error if we mention these as ‘Chinese projects’ or ‘China-backed projects’. These are purely Sri Lankan development projects undertaken by Chinese companies. There is a major difference, and when we say that it is a Chinese project, it gives a very different connotation. These are 100% Sri Lankan projects, and therefore, I think that we must look at them, and approach them, as Sri Lankan projects.
When it comes to the Port City project, which is the latest development project, I think that it is a gateway for the future of Sri Lanka. It gives an opportunity for Sri Lanka to prepare for the next century, equipped with high technology, smart cities, and artificial intelligence, while giving the youth of Sri Lanka an opportunity to develop themselves and to contribute to the economic development of the country. So, when it comes to the Port City, I think that we need to look at it as the future of Sri Lanka. We need to look at this project as a development project and as an investment opportunity, because the projected investment for the Port City project, according to my knowledge, is around $ 14-15 billion. Now, what we need is foreign direct investments to come and start working, because unfortunately, we have to accept that we do not produce enough to export. But one thing we can export is our expertise, knowledge, and services. So, we must look at the Port City project in that way. Also, the Port City is being created as a special economic zone. Sri Lanka is not doing very well in the Ease of Doing Business ranking and we are in the 99th position, and we are not attracting investors or prospective investments. That is why we needed a single window commission, to make the Port City work in a different way. That is our position.”
However, Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) Executive Director Dr. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu said that while the benefits of the Port City project would be crucial, Sri Lanka has to pay attention to the international relations with India and China. He noted that Sri Lanka must see to it that the Port City project results in the intended benefits, not precipitate international relations-related issues.
He added: “As far as the Sri Lankan Government is concerned, the Port City project is supposed to be a major magnet for foreign investments, and this is going to be a great boost for our development prospects in the future. But there is another dimension to it. The Port City project is predominantly a Chinese investment of $ 1.4 billion. The Chinese would want to get something out of it as well, and this is where Indian concerns about the possibility of this being used for military and strategic purposes come in. Sri Lanka has to be extremely wary, diligent, and vigilant to ensure that the Port City project is functioning and is used for the purposes that it was meant, and that it is not used for any military or strategic purposes. We have to be very clear with the Chinese Government in this case, or else we are going to imperil our foreign policy positions.”
Meanwhile, former Foreign Affairs Minister Ravi Karunanayake said that Sri Lanka should welcome any country to invest in the Port City project, without favouring selected countries. He added that Sri Lanka must keep both India and China as allies, and should focus on getting investments from other countries as well. He further noted that partnerships with India are of importance, and that not having such partnerships would be disadvantageous to Sri Lanka.
Karunanayake explained: “The Indians must be given access to come in, as much as possible, to free trade zones and have open policies. That is the only way that we can go forward. Therefore, I think that instead of trying to be negative and be in the dark, we can allow all investments to come. Look at countries like Singapore and Malaysia – that is how they have taken their countries forward. They invested in the economy and received the benefits. Let Sri Lanka also follow the same path. We have gone through enough and we have paid the price many times. I guess we need politicians that have a vision for the way forward and the courage of conviction to say what is good for the country.”
Karunanayake added: “Investments for the Port City project are necessary for Sri Lanka at a time when Covid-19 has affected the country, and it is necessary that we bring in quality-oriented investments. The Port City project has come with a new impetus. We have been supporting the Port City project on a policy level. We are looking at not only one or two countries but other countries too, be it India, China, the US, European Union (EU) countries, or Korea.”
Foreign policy and Sri Lanka’s sovereignty
To look into the international relations aspect of this matter, The Morning spoke to diplomat Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka, who has served as the Sri Lankan Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) in Geneva in Switzerland, France, the UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), and Russia.
According to Dr. Jayatilleka, the Sri Lankan Government should pay great attention to the status quo and be more cautious about the way Sri Lanka deals with India and China. He opined that the Government of Sri Lanka has lost its sense of balance which has led the country into a potential minefield of great power rivals.
He added: “We have to remember who we are, what we are, and where we are. We are a small island with a multi ethnic population located just 18 miles away from India. But we have conducted ourselves in a manner that is reckless. I am not saying that we should depend on India. However, we have to defend our sovereignty vis-à-vis our neighbour, and also be mindful of the neighbour’s legitimate apprehensions. Even if these apprehensions are not legitimate, one has to be mindful of them because we are neighbours. We have not done that under the existing administration. We have tilted towards China. I do not necessarily blame the Chinese because any great power occupies space and exerts influence whenever it can. I blame the Sri Lankan Government because it is not being careful enough.
“It has conducted itself in such a way that allows China the kind of large footprint that it has in Sri Lanka, which has not been calculated in terms of how it would be perceived by India. We know that there was an armed clash between China and India last year. I am not saying that this side or the other is responsible. But there was a clash and it has increased the intensity of the competition between the two countries. Sri Lanka is not being careful about the situation, and this situation is not limited to the Port City project but also to the Port of Hambantota.
“Also, the Port City project is not perceived by the US and India as a level playing field. The Government is being careless about this situation and we might have to face great consequences because the US is also concerned.”
Dr. Jayatilleka added that the US and India both being concerned about the Port City project might make the situation more serious than it appears to be, especially as far security and military matters are concerned.
He explained: “The US is still the world’s superpower and military power. The US leads the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), but is now a part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which is a strategic dialogue between the US, Japan, Australia, and India, which is specifically to do with the Indo-Pacific region. It would be extremely foolish if the Sri Lankan Government continues to ignore the likely threat perception on the part of India about a build-up by its rival who is also a competitor of the US and Australia. Sri Lanka is in the middle of the Indian Ocean, which is one of the components of the Indo-Pacific region. If we permit Chinese presence with the potential dual-use capability as perceived by India and the US, then we are taking the kind of risk we took in the 1980s, when we tilted to the US, ignoring India. It is a strategically untenable policy that the Government has adopted and if we continue on this course, we shall pay an avoidable but heavy price.”
When queried as to whether India should be concerned about the Port City project to this extent and whether India’s concerns are reasonable, Dr. Jayatilleka noted: “Even if we think that India is overreacting, we have to take their concerns seriously, whether they are legitimate or not. Our capacity is such that we have to take their perceptions and misperceptions into account in what we do. However, I don’t think that India is overreacting.”
He opined that the facilities and the space that have been granted to China in Sri Lanka will be seen by India in terms of its potential, not based on what Sri Lanka or China says.
He added: “The former Head of Military Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka, Colonel R. Hariharan has written an analysis where he says that the Port City project would give China electronic eavesdropping capacity and a number of other military capacities, potentially. Great powers do not base themselves on what a country says, but on the capacity of what rivals or allies can do.”
Meanwhile, Dr. Saravanamuttu, also speaking about Sri Lanka’s foreign policies, said that Sri Lanka needs to balance its relationships with India and China.
He added: “The Government has said that we have an ‘India first’ security policy and an ‘India first’ foreign policy – what does that mean? We have largely had more of a ‘China first’ foreign policy than an ‘India first’ foreign policy. So we have to recalibrate, and restore the balance between these two powers, and try to arrive at a situation in which they engage with each other in the Indian Ocean region in terms of a rules-based competition. Therefore, I think that whilst we hope that the economic benefits of this project will come to Sri Lanka, there are a lot of questions as to whether they will be fulfilled in full measure, and we have to ensure that there are no geopolitical problems that are created by this project. We have to ensure that this project does not imperil the security and independence of Sri Lanka, because as it stands at the present moment, we are in effect kind of creating another country in the Port City. That other country is still a part of the territory of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, and all that entails it as being a part of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka really needs to be taken to heart, and we have to therefore make sure that we maintain our independence and sovereignty.”
Speaking of India’s concerns, Prof. Colombage said that while the Government understands India’s security concerns, the Government is committed to ensuring that the Port City project does not leave any room for any security issues in the region.
“India is concerned, I believe. India has already informed that it is concerned about the potential security implications from the Port City project. But I must state that the President, addressing the Asia Future Leaders Summit organised by Nikkei in Japan last month, categorically indicated that no one will be allowed to jeopardise the security of India, and I believe that the President and the Government understand India’s security concerns and security sensitivities, and will never do anything against the strategic security of India.
“India is mindful of the Indian Ocean, and that is a rightful concern, and also when the Hambantota Port was created, India was very mindful about strategic security concerns. But I must say that because of the Hambantota Port, the sovereignty of Sri Lanka was not hampered at all, and now it is purely a Sri Lankan Port, managed jointly by a Chinese company and the Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA), and above all, the security is completely handled by the Sri Lanka Navy. So the Hambantota Port can never be used by anyone for any activity against India, or any other country for that matter. Similarly, when it comes to the Port City project too, its entire security, especially because it is joining the Port of Colombo, will be handled by the Sri Lanka Navy. Therefore, I don’t think that anyone should have any doubts or fears that these facilities will be used by one country against another. Sri Lanka will never allow that to happen.”
Adding that even though China has become a partner in Sri Lanka’s economic development, there is no ‘Chinese influence’ on Sri Lanka, Colombage elaborated that Sri Lanka maintains development co-operation with China and defence co-operation with India. He also noted that the Government is committed to maintaining this balance.
“There is no Chinese influence on Sri Lanka. Of course, China has become our number one development partner, and also during the Covid-19 vaccination process, China has become the main supplier of the Sinopharm vaccine. Those are true. But it does not mean that we are having any special defence co-operation with China. Our defence co-operation is tilted towards India; but our economic co-operation is titled more towards China. So there is a huge difference between defence co-operation and economic co-operation, and we need to look at this issue from that perspective. The country’s sovereignty will definitely be maintained.”
When questioned as to whether Indo-Sri Lanka ties would be affected by India’s growing concerns, Prof. Colombage asserted that the Indo-Sri Lanka relationship would not be hampered in any way, because Sri Lanka is dealing with China economically. He added that Sri Lanka recently promulgated a 20-point foreign policy directive, and the only country mentioned by name in that directive is India.
He noted: “In that we say that Sri Lanka will not be a strategic security threat to India, which means that we will never allow Sri Lankan land or territorial waters to be a threat against India. That is mentioned very clearly. For economic purposes, we have to deal with other countries as well. We invite the world to invest in the Port City project. What Sri Lanka needs is multiple investments from multiple countries and from multiple sources.”
Almost all those who have expressed concerns about the Port City project have acknowledged that the project itself is not detrimental to the country, but that the improper implementation of the project may affect Sri Lanka’s economic development, rule of law, and sovereignty. The Port City project is expected to bring debt-stricken Sri Lanka more investments, especially foreign investments. However, if India’s concerns, or similar concerns by other countries about the project, worsen, that may jeopardise the objective of attracting investments.
Therefore, as some who spoke to us opined, perhaps India’s concerns should be taken more seriously and be addressed before they can morph into international-level disagreements.